摘要
为了提高赤山湖流域洪水预测预报的能力,对赤山湖流域TIGGE降水预报精度进行了评价研究。将TIGGE的ECMWF、KMA、JMA、UKMO、CMA等5个模式应用于赤山湖流域,基于2015—2019年汛期降雨预报数据和流域实测降雨资料,采用均方误根差指标RMSE和降雨预报三率综合评价指标对这5个模式的预报精度进行了评价。结果表明:在赤山湖流域TIGGE的5个模式中,JMA模式的降水预报精度最高,其次是ECMWF。
In order to improve the ability of flood forecast in Chishan Lake Catchment,the TIGGE precipitation forecast precision was evaluated.The 5 models of TIGGE including ECMWF,KMA,JMA,UKMO and CMA were applied to the Chishan Lake Catchment,and based on the rainfall forecast data of the flood season in 2015-2019 and the measured rainfall data of the watershed,the prediction accuracy of the five models was evaluated by using the mean square root error index RMSE and the three-rate comprehensive evaluation index of rainfall forecast.The results showed that among the five TIGGE models in the Chishan Lake Catchment,the JMA model had the highest precipitation forecast accuracy,followed by ECMWF.
作者
杜开连
葛忆
张佳丽
朱力
DU Kailian;GE Yi;ZHANG Jiali;ZHU Li(Jurong Water Conservancy Bureau,Zhenjiang 212400,China)
出处
《江苏水利》
2020年第7期48-51,共4页
Jiangsu Water Resources
