摘要
新冠疫情的暴发从供给侧对全球供应链系统造成多方位中断,疫情的全球蔓延又进一步从需求层面继续放大全球供应链系统的脆弱性。本文将新冠疫情对全球供应链的冲击划分为我国停工、国外停工、全球需求疲软三个阶段,并结合ICT产业和汽车产业的全球供应链体系,剖析了疫情蔓延对全球供应链的持续影响以及我国在全球供应链位置的挑战。在短期,商业环境的不确定性、外资投资热情的降低、全球需求的萎缩和结构性的变化,将对我国外资引进和外贸出口产生巨大的下行压力;但是长期来看,全球化退潮和以中国为中心的全球化力量将重构全球供应链体系。面对"后疫情时代",本文从提高全球供应链系统的稳定性、推进"一带一路"高质量建设、促进数字化转型、注重全球健康类场景产品的研发等方面提供了应对建议。
The outbreak of COVID-19 has caused multiple interruptions to the global supply chain system from the supply side, and the global spread of COVID-19 has further amplified the vulnerability of the global supply chain system from the demand level. This article divides the impact of COVID-19 on the global supply chain into three stages: China’s shutdown, overseas shutdown, and weak global demand. Combining with the global supply chain system of the ICT industry and the automotive industry, it analyzes the continuous impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain and the challenge of China’s position in the global supply chain. In the short term, the uncertainty of the business environment, the decline in foreign investment enthusiasm, the shrinking global demand and structural changes have generated huge downward pressure on China’s foreign investment and exports;but in the long run, the anti-globalization and the power of China-centered globalization will reconstruct the global supply chain system. Faced with the "post-epidemic era", this article provides suggestions of improving the stability of the global supply chain system, promoting the high-quality construction of the Belt and Road, promoting digital transformation, and focusing on the development of global health scene products.
作者
刘瑶
陈珊珊
LIU Yao;CHEN Shanshan(Dongbei University of Finance&Economics)
出处
《国际贸易》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期53-62,共10页
Intertrade
基金
教育部人文社科后期资助项目“经济周期联动视角下全球价值链变革对劳动力就业的冲击研究”(20JHQ067)
辽宁省社科规划基金“我国信息通讯企业研发国际化的多样性及其创新绩效研究”(L19BJY020)
东北财经大学重大突发公共事件专项研究项目“新冠疫情对全球供应链的冲击与应对策略研究”(DUFE2020ZXYB15)的阶段性研究成果。
