摘要
为构建基于WOFOST作物模型主要输出要素地上部生物量(TAGP)和叶面积指数(LAI)的华北平原冬小麦长势评估指标,利用华北平原冬小麦主产区农业气象站冬小麦生育期、叶面积指数和土壤湿度等观测资料以及河北固城站、河南郑州站和山东泰安站3个农业气象试验站冬小麦生物量观测资料,完成WOFOST模型参数本地化和适应性分析。利用华北平原354个气象站2001-2016年逐日气象资料驱动模型,根据不同时段15年地上总生物量(TAGP)和叶面积指数(LAI)要素及其与15年平均值的距平百分率的概率统计分布,确定冬小麦长势动态评估指标;利用冬小麦田间观测资料,检验指标的合理性和有效性。结果表明:(1)试验站观测值与模拟值对比显示,冬小麦生育期模拟误差绝对值平均为3.7d,地上部总生物量及各器官生物量的误差为3.8%~11.7%,WOFOST模型可较为准确地模拟冬小麦生长发育及其生物量的动态累积过程,在华北平原适用性良好;(2)基于指标的动态长势评估等级与观测数据对比,2个农业气象试验站点的指标评估结果与观测资料一致性较好,1个站点的结果则在冬小麦生长过程中呈波动状态,总体上基于LAI的长势评价指标与观测资料对比相关系数高于基于TAGP的评价指标;(3)基于WOFOST模型的冬小麦长势评估指标能够一定程度反映冬小麦长势状况,可用于业务中进行实时、动态和定量的评估。
In order to construct the growth evaluation indices of winter wheat in Northern China Plain based on the main factors[the above ground biomass(TAGP)and leaf area index(LAI)]of WOFOST winter wheat model,the measured data of winter wheat biomass in three agricultural meteorological stations(Hebei Gucheng station,Henan Zhengzhou station and Shandong Tai’an station)were utilized,to analyze the localization and adaptability of winter wheat model of WOFOST.According to the daily meteorological data of 354 meteorological stations in Northern China Plain from 2001 to 2016,the winter wheat growth model of WOFOST was run and 15 years output factors were obtained.The dynamic evaluation indices of winter wheat growth were determined in the method with the probabilistic and statistical distributions of TAGP and LAI and their anomaly percentages with the 15-year average value.The rationality and validation of the indices were tested by the field observed data.The results showed that:the mean absolute error of winter wheat development simulation was 3.7 days and the errors of aboveground biomass and various organs biomass were 3.8%-11.7%.Thus,WOFOST can simulate accurately the dynamic accumulation process of winter wheat growth and biomass,which can be applied in the Northern China Plain.Based on dynamic index,the growth evaluation grade of two stations were in good agreement with the observation data,while the results of the other one were in fluctuating state.On the whole,the LAI-based evaluation index was better than TAGP-based evaluation index.The growth evaluation indices based on of WOFOST crop model can reflect the situation of winter wheat growth to a certain extent and can be used for real-time,dynamic and quantitative evaluation in services.
作者
郑昌玲
侯英雨
吴门新
张蕾
ZHENG Changling;HOU Yingyu;WU Menxin;ZHANG Lei(National Meteorological Center,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《麦类作物学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第6期746-753,共8页
Journal of Triticeae Crops
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506001)
国家气象中心作物模型业务应用创新团队共同资助项目。
