摘要
利用CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集资料,对1949—2018年北上热带气旋(NMTC)的主要特征进行统计分析.结果表明:①近70年来,NMTC的频数呈略增加的趋势,进入关键区的NMTC频数随年代总体呈略减少趋势;②北上时段集中在7—9月,8月份最多;③NMTC在整个生命史中,最多的是超强台风,进入定义区后,强热带风暴占比最大,强度在台风以上的NMTC,首次登陆地点一般在浙江及以北地区;④进入关键区以热带风暴为主,强度维持台风级别的NMTC,首次登陆地点一般在山东及以北地区;⑤70年间进入河北地区的NMTC共有8个,其强度与其初次登陆时的强度没有明显的正相关关系;⑥对河北造成的影响是远距离NMTC与中纬度西风槽相互作用主要产生暴雨洪涝灾害,而近距离或受其直接影响,风灾可能更多;⑦NMTC造成的风暴潮若与天文大潮叠加,则潮灾更加严重.
By using the data sets of CMA-STI tropical cyclones optimal tracks from 1949 to 2018,the main characteristics of the northward moving tropical cyclones(NMTC)were statistically analyzed.The results showed that nearly 70 a NMTCs had a slight increase in frequency and the frequency of NMTCs entered the key area was decreasing slightly with the years.The northward moving period was concentrated in July to September and the most in August;In the entire life period of the NMTCs,the most was the super typhoon.After entering the definition area,the largest proportion was severe tropical storm.NMTCs with intensity above typhoon usually made their first landfall in Zhejiang and areas to the north;Tropical storms dominated the key areas.NMTCs with typhoon intensity first landed generally in Shandong and the north.There were eight NMTCs that entered Hebei Province in 70 a,and their intensity had no obvious positive correlation with their strength at the time of initial landing;The impact of the NMTCs on Hebei was that the interaction between the long-distance NMTCs and the mid-latitude west wind trough mainly produced heavy rain and floods,while the close range or directly affected by NMTCs may have more wind disasters;If the storm surge caused by NMTC overlaps with an astronomical tide,the disasters will be even worse.
作者
宿海良
费晓臣
王福侠
SU Hailiang;FEI Xiaochen;WANG Fuxia(Tangshan Meteorological Bureau,Tangshan 063000,Hebei China;Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021,China;Hebei Meteorological Observatory,Shijiazhuang 050021,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2020年第6期966-972,共7页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41605058)。
关键词
北上热带气旋
气候特征
频数变化
强度分布
灾害分析
northward moving tropical cyclone
climate characteristics
frequency changes
intensity distribution
disaster analysis
