摘要
江苏风电装机规模大,具有海上、沿海和内陆风电场3种类型的风电场。掌握不同类型风电有功出力及波动性规律对于电网规划、调度、运行意义重大。基于江苏海上、沿海和内陆3类风电场的运行数据,利用多种概率分布模型模拟了风电场有功出力及波动特性,采用最大似然估计法对模型参数进行估计,根据多种评价指标对拟合精度进行衡量,结果表明海上风电有功出力服从Gamma分布,沿海和内陆风电有功出力更接近Weibull分布。3类风电的有功波动最优拟合为含有尺度和位置参数的t分布。
Wind power in Jiangsu are not only large in installed capacities but also varied in wind farm types,which include offshore,coastal and inland wind farms.It is of significance to the planning,dispatching and operation of power grids to obtain the active output and fluctuation characteristics of different wind farms.According to the actual operation data of inland,coastal and off shore wind farms in Jiangsu province,several probability models are used to simulate the active output of wind farms and the fluctuation characteristics.The maximum likelihood estimation method is adopted to estimate the model parameters,and multiple indexes are used to assess the fitting accuracy.The result shows that the offshore wind power output follows Gamma distribution in probability density function,while the inland and coastal wind power output follows the Weibull distribution.The optimal fitness of output fluctuation of the three types of wind farms follows t distribution of the Location-Scale function.
作者
张宁宇
周前
刘建坤
ZHANG Ningyu;ZHOU Qian;LIU Jiankun(State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power CO.,LTD Research Institute,Nanjing,Jiangsu 211103,China)
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第7期18-23,共6页
Electric Power
基金
国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目(环境交互下的海上风电系统:多物理场模型与大数据研究,5171101179)
国家电网公司科技项目(适应交直流混联受端电网的大规模海上风电接入方式优化及运行控制技术研究,5210EF17001G)。
关键词
风电功率
风电波动性
概率密度函数
最大似然估计
wind power
wind power fluctuation characteristics
probability density function
maximum likelihood estimation
