摘要
本文采用贸易潜力指数(TPI),从收入角度测度分析了1995—2016年"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家的农产品贸易潜力,通过构建包含了农业劳动生产率和农产品价格等变量在内的扩展随机前沿引力模型,估计和比较分析了沿线21个国家对中国的农产品出口贸易效率及其影响因素,并进一步测算出口贸易增长空间。研究结果表明:中亚经济带国家的农产品总体贸易潜力最大,环中亚经济带国家次之,亚欧经济带国家最小;沿线国家对中国的农产品出口贸易潜力平均可拓展为实际出口贸易额的10.02倍。其中,2008—2016年环中亚经济带国家对中国的农产品出口贸易扩展空间最大,中亚经济带次之,亚欧经济带最小;沿线国家对中国的农产品出口贸易平均效率较低,其中,亚欧经济带国家的出口贸易效率相对最高,中亚经济带次之,环中亚经济带最低;出口国的农业劳动生产率、汇率、物流绩效、贸易和金融开放度和是否为上合组织或WTO成员国等因素都会影响贸易效率。
From the perspective of income,this paper used the trade potential index(TPI)to analyze and measure the trade potential in agricultural sector of the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt(SREB)from 1995 to 2016,by constructing an extended stochastic frontier gravity model,including variables such as agricultural labor productivity,agricultural product prices,efficiency of agricultural exports from the specific twenty one countries to China.The influencing factors were estimated and compared,and the growth space of export trade was calculated.The results show that there is the largest total trade potential in countries of the Central Asian area,followed by that of countries of the Central Asian area,and then countries of the Asia-Europe area.What’s more,the export potential in these countries can expand to 10.02 times of the real export trade on average.According to the degree of expansion order,the sequence should be as follows:countries of the Central Asian area,countries of the Central Asian area,countries of the AsiaEurope area.However,the average efficiency of agricultural exports from these countries to China is relatively low.And factors such as agricultural labour productivity,exchange rate,logistics performance,trade and financial openness and membership of the SCO or WTO matter.
作者
杨桔
祁春节
YANG Ju;QI Chunjie
出处
《国际贸易问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期127-142,共16页
Journal of International Trade
基金
国家现代农业(柑橘)产业技术体系(MATS)专项经费资助项(CARS-26-08B)
安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题攻关研究项目(2019CX108)。
关键词
“丝绸之路经济带”
农产品
随机前沿引力模型
贸易效率
贸易潜力
Silk Road Economic Belt
Agricultural Products
Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
Trade Efficiency
Trade Potential
