摘要
本文基于2020年1月23日至2020年2月20日中国国家卫生健康委员会报告的武汉病例数据,通过引入表述易感人群行为特征的隔离强度,研究了易感人群软隔离行为对COVID-19在武汉的传播影响.我们将人群分为六类:隔离的易感者-暴露的易感者-潜伏者-无症状的感染者-有症状的染病者-恢复者,建立COVID-19传播动力学模型,利用蒙特卡罗法估计了参数并对模型进行数据拟合和数值模拟,得到了武汉市实施软隔离措施后的有效再生数、高峰到达时间、高峰规模、流行时间、最终规模等,同时评估了易感人群隔离率及易感人群暴露率对COVID-19疫情的影响.
Based on Wuhan’s COVID-19 reported cases by National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China from January 23 to February 20,2020,the relationship between transmission of COVID-19 in Wuhan and soft quarantine intensity in susceptible population is investigated.Dividing the population into six categories:quarantined susceptible-exposed susceptible-exposed-infectious but not yet symptomatic(presymptomatic)-infectious with symptoms-recovered,we propose a generalized S_qSEAIR model to analyze this epidemic.We estimate key epidemic parameters by Monte Carlo method.Data fitting and numerical simulation are carried out for the model.We obtain effective reproduction number,peak arrival time,peak value,epidemic time,and final size after the implementation of soft quarantine measures.The effects of quarantine rate and exposure rate of susceptible population on COVID-19 transmission are evaluated.
作者
张菊平
李云
姚美萍
张娟
朱怀平
靳祯
ZHANG Juping;LI Yun;YAO Meiping;ZHANG Juan;ZHU Huaiping;JIN Zhen(Complex Systems Research Center,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;Department of Mathematics,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 211106,China;School of Mathematical Sciences,Shanxi University,Taiyuan 030006,China;Department of Mathematics and Statistics,York University,Toronto M3J 1P3,Canada)
出处
《应用数学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期162-173,共12页
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica
基金
国家自然科学基金(11971278,61873154,11601292,U1611264)
山西省科技厅新型冠状病毒应急专项基金(202003D31011/GZ)资助.
