摘要
2008年金融危机爆发以来,一方面,美国为维持其经济地位而频繁变动货币政策,使得港美之间的利差逐渐增大;另一方面,中国内地与香港地区的经济往来越来越密切,两地的贸易往来和直接投资水平都间接影响着香港联系汇率制度的稳健运行。为此,选取1997—2019年月度衡量指标,通过建立VAR模型定量分析中国内地与香港地区间资本流动额、港美利率差、相对通货膨胀水平以及香港外汇干预程度这几大因素对港币汇率变动的影响。结果表明,在影响港币汇率的各因素中,港美利差、中国内地与香港地区的资本流动水平对港币汇率的影响显著,而相对通货膨胀水平及外汇干预程度等因素的影响相对较小。因此,建议从放宽港币兑美元的波动幅度,完善并加强对金融活动的监督,增强内地对香港维持金融体系稳定的支持等方面来维持港币汇率的稳定。
Since the financial crisis in 2008,the United States has frequently changed its monetary policy in order to maintain its economic status,widening the gap of interest margin between Hong Kong and the United States.At the same time,Hong Kong’s economic exchange with the Chinese mainland are getting closer.Therefore,the paper adopted monthly measurement indicators from 1997 to 2019 to establish the VAR model and did quantitative analysis of Hong Kong’s exchange rate fluctuation caused by capital flow between Hong Kong and the mainland,interest margin between Hong Kong and the United States,and relative inflation and foreign exchange interference.The result shows that among the factors influencing Hong Kong’s exchange rate,interest margin between Hong Kong and the United States and capital flow between the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong have remarkable influence,whereas relative inflation level and foreign exchange interference have little influence.Therefore,to maintain steady exchange rate in Hong Kong,we should relax Hong Kong dollars’conversion fluctuation range against US dollars,improve financial supervision and enhance the Chinese mainland’s support of Hong Kong’s financial stability.
作者
魏晓琴
姜宇
程成
Wei Xiaoqin;Jiang Yu;Cheng Cheng(School of Economics,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)
出处
《金融理论探索》
2020年第3期39-49,共11页
Exploration of Financial Theory
关键词
联系汇率制度
美国货币政策
资本流动水平
港美利差
linked exchange rate system
US monetary policy
capital flow level
the interest margin between Hong Kong and the US
