摘要
在对中国西藏与南亚贸易与经济技术相互关系的研究之中,定性之中加入一定的数量分析,是比较常见的,有利于增加佐证的份量;再经过较为深度的实证分析,可以更好地予以阐释外经贸与西藏经济内外发展的相关性,因而可揭示出两者之间存在Granger的双向因果关系。从较长时段看,西藏地方经济发展的政策因素作用很大,对西藏地方经济的贡献度,远高于西藏与南亚贸易额对西藏地方经济的贡献度。由于政策与发展存在着相互拉动的作用,研究相关情况和政策制定中,应当着眼于利用西藏区位优势,注重培养经济内生性发展动力,对内对外都应处理并协调好诸多关系。从深化改革与扩大开放的取向上看,基于西藏地方经济自身发展,才能有对南亚贸易额贡献度较大的事实,制定发展西藏地区的特色产业相关政策,促进经济增长的一系列举措有着内在的合理性。西藏在"一带一路"愿景行动中,提高与内地联通的相关度,夯实硬软件基础,定会促进面向南亚的大通道建设与外经贸水平的提升。
In the research on the relationship between trade andeconom ic technology between China’s Tibet and South Asia,it is common to addcertain quantitative analysis into the qualitative analysis,which is conducive to increasing the weight of evidence.Further in-depthem pirical analysis can better explain the correlation between foreign trade andeconom icdevelopment in Tibet,thus revealing the two-way causality of Granger between the two.In the long term,the policy factors of the local economic development in Tibet play a significant role,contributing much more to the local economy than the trade volume between Tibet and South Asia.As policy and development play a role of pulling each other,the research and policy form ulation should focus on making use of the regional advantages of Tibet,pay attention to cultivating the endogenous driving force of economic development,and coordinate the external and internal relations.From the perspective of deepening reform and opening up,based on the fact that Tibet’s local economic development contributes a lot to the trade volume of South Asia,it is reasonable to formulate policies related to the development of characteristic industries in Tibet and a series of measures to promote economic growth.In the Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road,Tibet will enhance its relevance to the mainland and consolidate the hardware and software foundation,which will surely promote the construction of the great channel opening to South Asia and the level of foreign trade and economic cooperation.
作者
朱明杰
孙勇
Zhu Ming-jie;Sun Yong(Institute of South Asia Studies,Xizang Minzu University,Xianyang,Shaanxi,12200)
出处
《西藏研究》
北大核心
2020年第2期112-125,共14页
Tibetan Studies
关键词
西藏
南亚
贸易与经济关系
格兰杰因果检验
Tibet
South Asia
The Relationship between Trade and Economy
Granger Causality Test
