摘要
为进一步推广减法集对势这一新颖的趋势分析方法在水资源承载力领域中的应用,在原有三元减法集对势研究的基础上,考虑五元联系数的结构形式及其同一度、对立度、差异度子项对最终趋势分析的影响,构造了五元减法集对势,并应用于山东省和黑龙江省的水资源承载力单指标和子系统的趋势分析中。结果表明:2006年山东省水资源承载状况较差,主要由于"生态环境特性"和"水资源利用特性"子系统的发展趋势均为反势,"城市污水日处理量""万元工业增加值用水量"等指标亟需加强调控;现阶段黑龙江省水资源承载状况整体较好,其中"生态"子系统的发展趋势最好,其余子系统均为均势,"产水能力""第一产业占比"等指标的发展趋势较差,"生态用水比例"指标的发展趋势最好。五元减法集对势可清晰、准确地识别出水资源承载力中较差或较好的子系统或单指标,可为后期调控措施的制定提供参考。此方法不仅适用于水资源承载力趋势分析中,也可应用于其他领域类似的趋势问题分析中。
In order to further promote the application of the novel trend analysis method of subtraction set pair potential in the field of water resources carrying capacity, based on the research of the original ternary subtraction set pair potential, considering the structural form of the five-variable connection number and the influence of its sub-items degree of identity, oppositeness and difference on the final trend analysis, the five-variable subtraction set pair potential was constructed, and this method was applied to the trend analysis of single index and evaluation subsystem of water resources carrying capacity in Shandong Province and Heilongjiang Province. The results are as follows. Firstly, the carrying capacity of water resources in Shandong Province is poor in 2006, mainly because the development trend of the subsystem of "ecological environment characteristics" and "water resources utilization characteristics" are both counter-trend. Indicators such as "daily treatment capacity of urban sewage" and "water consumption per ten thousand yuan of added industrial value" need to be strengthened urgently. Secondly, the water resources carrying capacity in Heilongjiang Province is relatively good as a whole, among which the development trend of ecological subsystem is the best, while other subsystems are balanced. Thirdly, the five-variable subtraction set pair potential can clearly and accurately identify the poor or better subsystems or single indicators in the water resources carrying capacity, which can provide a reference for the formulation of later adjustment measures. This method is not only applicable to the trend analysis of water resource carrying capacity, but also to similar trend analysis problems in other fields.
作者
金菊良
陈鹏飞
张浩宇
郦建强
何君
陈梦璐
JIN Juliang;CHEN Pengfei;ZHANG Haoyu;LI Jianqiang;HE Jun;CHEN Menglu(School of Civil Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Institute of Water Resources and Environmental Systems Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China;Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design General Institute,MWR,Beijing 100120,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第2期30-35,42,共7页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401303)
国家自然科学基金项目(51579059,51779067)。
关键词
联系数
五元减法集对势
水资源承载力
趋势分析
山东省
黑龙江省
connection number
five-variable subtraction set pair potential
water resources carrying capacity
trend analysis
Shandong Province
Heilongjiang Province
