摘要
为应对气候变化和推进绿色低碳发展,中国政府自2010年开始实施低碳城市试点政策,并不断扩大试点范围。准确评估低碳城市建设的政策效果,对于进一步推广这一试点政策具有重要意义。本文利用2003—2016年中国285个城市的面板数据,借助于低碳试点政策在不同城市、不同试点时间上的变异,使用双重差分方法估计了低碳城市建设对碳排放的影响。研究发现,相比于非试点城市,试点城市的碳排放量相对于样本均值降低了约1.05个百分点,意味着低碳城市建设显著降低碳排放水平。同时,低碳城市建设对碳排放的影响存在异质性,碳减排效应在西部城市和低经济发展水平城市的子样本中更加显著。从动态效应上看,低碳城市建设的碳减排效应出现在试点后的第一年到第四年,而在试点后的第五年和第六年消失。机制分析表明,低碳城市建设通过降低电力消费量和提升技术创新水平等途径抑制碳排放量。本文研究为在全国范围内推广低碳城市建设的政策规划提供了经验支持。
According to BP statistics,China's total carbon emissions reached 6,656 million tons in 2006,surpassing the United States'6,029 million tons,making it to be the world's largest carbon emitter.Facing the increasing international pressure to reduce emissions,and to achieve the goal of green and low-carbon development,the Chinese government has implemented pilot policy for low-carbon city since 2010,and has continuously expanded the scope of the pilot projects.Therefore,accurately evaluating the policy effect of low-carbon city construction is of great significance for further promoting this pilot policy.The existing literatures pay more and more attention to the policy effect of low-carbon city construction,and evaluate it from the perspectives of PM2.5,PM10,API,green total factor productivity,foreign direct investment,etc.However,they pay less attention to the effect of low-carbon city construction on carbon emissions,which provides space for this study.Using the pilot policy for low-carbon city as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper investigates the causal impact of low-carbon city construction on carbon emissions,based on the panel dataset of 285 cities in China from 2003 to 2016 and the method of the difference-in-differences(DID)model.The empirical results show that compared with non-pilot cities,the carbon emissions in pilot cities decreased by about 1.05 percentage points relative to the sample average,suggesting that low-carbon city construction significantly inhibits carbon emissions.After a series of robustness tests such as common trends test,PSM-DID,controlling urban attribute variables,and placebo test,this conclusion still holds.Moreover,the impact of low-carbon city construction on carbon emissions is heterogeneous.Specifically,the carbon emission reduction effect is more significant in the samples of western cities and cities with low economic development level.From the perspective of dynamic effects,the carbon emission reduction effect of low-carbon city construction appears in the first year to
作者
张华
ZHANG Hua(School of Business Administration,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,211815,China)
出处
《经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第6期25-41,共17页
Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国式分权下绿色悖论的形成机理、效应评估与疏解路径研究”(71703073)
江苏省社会科学基金青年项目“环境规制视角下江苏碳排放的长效治理机制研究”(16GLC005)
南京审计大学青年教师科研培育项目“雾霾污染对城乡收入差距影响的机理、效应与调控研究”(18QNPY009)。
关键词
低碳城市
碳排放
双重差分法
low-carbon city
carbon emissions
difference-in-differences
