摘要
人工智能技术的应用对就业市场的潜在冲击引发了社会各界的广泛关注,利用O*net职业数据库,通过随机森林分类器算法,预测了人工智能应用影响下职业的技术潜在被替代风险。研究结果表明:不同职业的潜在被替代风险存在差异,其中,研究、社交、管理等职业的潜在被替代风险较低,而文秘、审查等程序性认知活动较多的职业的潜在被替代风险较高;未来20年大约59.5%的中国就业岗位将受到人工智能的冲击;受教育程度与职业的潜在被替代风险呈负相关,但与收入水平的负相关关系不显著,投资教育依然是劳动者维持就业市场竞争力的重要手段。由此可见,在老龄化趋势下,人工智能技术的应用对职业的替代效应将缓解劳动力规模下降带来的潜在问题,而人类劳动者需要进一步发掘创新决策能力,如此才能趋利避害,更好地适应智能社会的新变化。
The potential impact of artificial intelligence in the job market has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life.Based on the O*net occupation database and random forest classifier algorithm,this study predicts the potential risk of occupational substitution under the influence of AI.The result shows that there is heterogeneity in the risk of potential substitution among different occupations.Firstly,the risk of potential substitution in research,social interaction,management and other occupations are comparatively low,while the risk of potential substitution in secretarial,censorship and other occupations with more procedural cognitive activities is relatively high;Secondly,about 59.5%of Chinese jobs in the next 20 years will be affected by AI;Thirdly,the labor’s degree of education in the occupation is negatively correlated with the risk of potential substitution,but the correlation between the risk of potential substitution and income levels is not significant.Investment in education remains an important means for workers to maintain their competitiveness in the job market.Therefore,in the era of population aging,the occupational substitution effect of AI will alleviate the possible problems caused by the decline of labor supply.Meanwhile,human laborer needs to explore the ability of innovation and decision-making,in order to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages and cope with the new changes in the intelligent society.
作者
龚遥
彭希哲
GONG Yao;PENG Xizhe(School of Social Development and Public Policy, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433,China;Center for Population and Development Policy Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《人口与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期86-105,共20页
Population & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目“应对老龄社会的基础科学问题研究”(71490735)。
关键词
人工智能
职业
替代风险
artificial intelligence
occupation
substitution risk
