摘要
目的分析2010-2018年中山市居民主要慢性非传染性疾病(慢病)死亡率及期望寿命变化趋势,分析居民慢病死亡对期望寿命的影响,预测2019-2023年期望寿命水平。方法通过死亡率、去死因期望寿命等指标分析居民死亡和减寿的主要原因,采用时间序列分析法自回归求和移动平均(ARIMA)模型预测2019-2023年中山市居民期望寿命。结果2010-2018年中山市户籍居民死亡率排前3位的慢病种类依次为循环系统疾病、肿瘤、呼吸系统疾病,男性在三类慢病的死亡水平均高于女性。在研究的9年中,中山市户籍人口期望寿命呈逐渐上升趋势(β=0.931,P<0.01)。ARIMA分析预测,2023年中山市居民期望寿命为80.92岁,其中男性期望寿命为79.00岁,女性期望寿命83.69岁。预测未来5年中山市居民的期望寿命均较2018年有所提高。结论2010-2018年对中山市户籍居民期望寿命影响最大的慢病为循环系统疾病,其次为肿瘤和呼吸系统疾病。从趋势上看,肿瘤对期望寿命的损失逐渐加大,男性肿瘤死亡率远高于女性,应列为重点干预人群。
Objective To analyze the change trend of mortality of major chronic non-communicable diseases(chronic diseases)and life expectancy among residents in Zhongshan City from 2010-2018,explore the impact of chronic disease death on life expectancy,and predict the life expectancy level from 2019-2023.Methods The main causes of death and life loss of residents were analyzed by mortality,cause-deleted life expectancy and other indicators.Autoregressire Integrcted Moving Average(ARIMA)model of time series analysis was used to predict the life expectancy of residents in Zhongshan City from 2019-2023.Results From 2010-2018,the top three chronic diseases in the mortality rate of Zhongshan residents were circulatory system diseases,tumors and respiratory system diseases.The mortality level of three chronic diseases in males was higher than that in females.During the research period,the life expectancy of Zhongshan residents increased gradually(β=0.931,P<0.01).ARIMA analysis predicted that the life expectancy of residents in Zhongshan City will be 80.92 years old in 2023,including 79.00 years old for males and 83.69 years old for females.It is predicted that the life expectancy of residents will increase in the next five years compared with 2018.Conclusion From 2010-2018,the chronic diseases that have the greatest impact on the life expectancy of Zhongshan residents are circulatory diseases,followed by tumor and respiratory diseases.In terms of trend,the loss of life expectancy from cancer is increasing gradually.The mortality rate of cancer in males is much higher than that in females,which should be considered as the key intervention population.
作者
黄莉莉
蔡志成
夏生林
李映来
张瀚中
HUANG Li-li;CAI Zhi-cheng;XIA Sheng-lin;LI Ying-lai;ZHANG Han-zhong(Business Management Section,Zhongshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Zhongshan Guangdong,528403,China)
出处
《职业与健康》
CAS
2020年第5期654-657,661,共5页
Occupation and Health
基金
中山市科技计划项目(2018B1060)。
关键词
慢性非传染性疾病
粗死亡率
期望寿命
去死因期望寿命
Chronic non infectious diseases
Crude mortality
Life expectancy
Cause-deleted life expectancy
