摘要
以第七、第八届女足世界杯90min内非平局86场比赛为研究对象,通过独立样本t检验、相关检验和多元线性模型的方法对比赛结果(胜、负)的比赛技战术指标进行分析,并通过逐步回归模型进一步筛选出影响比赛结果的核心技战术指标。研究结果显示:1)获胜球队在10项进球射门相关技术指标中有8项指标均与失利球队存在显著性差异(p<0.05);在20项进攻组织相关技术指标中有16项指标均与失利球队存在显著性差异(p<0.01);在13项防守相关技术指标中有6项指标与失利球队存在显著性差异(p<0.01)。2)与比赛结果高度相关指标有3项(|r|>0.5);中度相关指标有20项(0.3<|r|<0.5);低相关指标有7项(0.1<|r|<0.3)。3)通过逐步回归方程得出进球、长传、直塞球、传中成功率、控球率等5项指标对比赛结果起着决定性的影响。
Taking the non-draw 86 games within 90 minutes of the 7th and 8th Women’s Football World Cups as the research object,the independent technical t-test,correlation test,and multivariate linear model to analyze the technical and tactical indicators of the game results(winning and losing),and use the stepwise regression model to further select the core indicators that influence the outcome of the game.The research results show that:1)8 of the 10 technical indicators related to the winning team were significantly different from the losing team(p<0.05);16 of the 20 technical indicators related to the offensive organization were significantly different from the losing team(p<0.01),and 6 of the 13 defense-related technical indicators were significantly different from the losing team(p<0.01).2)There were 3 indicators that were highly correlated with the outcome(|r|>0.5);20 that were moderately correlated indicators with the outcome(0.3<|r|<0.5);and 7 lowly correlated with the outcome(0.1<|r|<0.3).3)The five indicators of goal,long pass,straight pass,cross success rate,and ball control rate had a decisive influence on the result of the game according to the stepwise regression equation.
作者
谢福志
刘艳明
董良才
XIE Fuzhi;LIU Yanming;DONG Liangcai(Physical Education College of Central China Normal University,Wuhan Hubei,430079;Huazhou No.1 Junior High School,Maoming Guangdong,440900)
出处
《湖北体育科技》
2020年第4期348-351,364,共5页
Hubei Sports Science
关键词
女足世界杯
技战术表现
比赛结果
逐步回归模型
Women's World Cup
technical and tactical performance
match results
stepwise regression model
