摘要
目的在农村推广分布式光伏发电,不仅可以提高农村居民收入水平、方便居民日常生活,而且有利于促进绿色、可持续发展。但是,光伏发电初始投资额较大,投资风险影响因素众多,收益前景不明朗,需要对其进行投资风险分析。方法以邢台市10 kW光伏发电系统为例,采用净现值法对系统生命周期内的发电收益进行蒙特卡洛模拟。结果10 kW分布式光伏发电系统25年的发电收益净现值平均值为95917元,最小值为47150元,最大值为145678元,净现值在70000~120000元的频率为84.84%。净现值对补贴价格的敏感度为56.6%,无补贴情况下,收益净现值主要分布在60000~90000元,最小值为46300元。结论分布式光伏发电系统投资收益良好,不存在净现值小于0的情况。投资收益净现值对补贴价格最为敏感,取消补贴会对光伏发电投资收益产生较大的影响。但即便是在没有补贴的情况下,也可以进行投资。
Objective The promotion of distributed photovoltaic power generation in rural areas can not only improve the income level of rural residents and facilitate daily life,but also is conducive to promote green and sustainable development.However,the initial investment in photovoltaic power generation is large and the investment risk is affected by many factors,so the income prospect is not clear.Therefore,the investment risk analysis is needed.Methods By taking a 10 kW photovoltaic power generation system in Xingtai City as an example,the net present value(NPV)generation revenue in the system’s life cycle was simulated in Monte Carlo.Results The average NPV value of the generation income of 10 kW distributed photovoltaic power generation system in 25 years was 95,917 yuan,the minimum value was 47,150 yuan,the maximum value was 145,678 yuan,and the frequency of NPV between 70,000 and 120,000 yuan was 84.84%.The sensitivity of NPV to subsidy price was 56.6%.Without subsidy,the NPV of income mainly ranged from 60,000 to 90,000 yuan,with a minimum value of 46,300 yuan.Conclusion The investment income of distributed photovoltaic power generation system is good,and there is no case that the net present value is less than 0.The net present value of investment income is most sensitive to subsidy prices,and removing subsidies will have great influence on investment income in photovoltaic power generation.But investments can be made even without subsidies.
作者
孙岩松
苏尤丽
SUN Yan-song;SU You-li(School of Information Management,Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830012,China)
出处
《河北北方学院学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第3期44-50,共7页
Journal of Hebei North University:Natural Science Edition
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区引进海外博士后人才支撑经费项目(新人社函[2014]649号)。
关键词
光伏发电
蒙特卡洛模拟
净现值
投资风险
photovoltaic power generation
Monte Carlo simulation
net present value(NPV)
investment risk
