摘要
目的利用风险评估方法探索出一套适用于广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎(新冠肺炎)疫情的分区分级防控方案。方法基于2020年1月1日-2月23日全国各省新增病例数、广东省各城市疫情以及重点地区人群迁入广东省的数据,利用专家会商法设计评估体系,通过定量分析法计算152个区域的输入、扩散及综合风险值。通过专家会商法提出广东省新冠肺炎疫情风险分级管理方案。结果输入风险中,处于高风险的县区17个(11.18%)、中风险36个(23.68%),低风险99个(65.13%);扩散风险中,处于高风险的县区17个(11.08%),中等风险32个(21.05%),低风险103个(67.76%)。综合高风险地区主要集中在佛山市、惠州市、广州市、深圳市、惠州市、东莞市等城市。结论高风险地区集中在广东省珠三角,由于经济水平高、人口密度大,外来务工人员集中,面临着更大的防控压力。各地区可参照分区分级评估方法与防控措施建议灵活调整防控工作,尽快恢复生产与社会秩序。
Objective To preliminarily develop a region-and risk-specific plan for prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) epidemic base on the risk assessment methodology. Methods We collected the data on daily number of COVID-19 cases reported in every provincial-level regions across China and every prefecture level regions in Guangdong province and the size of migrant populations from regions with severe COVID-19 epidemic. A scheme for assessment of COVID-19 epidemic risk was developed with expert consultations. The risk of imported, local and combined transmission of COVID-19 were evaluated using quantitative analysis for 152 county/district level regions in Guangdong province. Results The assessment results demonstrated that for all the regions, 17(11.18%), 36(23.68%), and 99(65.13%)were at high, moderate, and low risk of imported transmission and 17(11.08%), 32(21.05%), and 103(67.76%) were at high,moderate, and low risk of local transmission of COVID-19, respectively. The regions with high combined risk distributed mainly around several municipalities, including Foshan, Huizhou, Gruangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan. Conclusion The Pearl River Delta region is at a high risk of COVID-19 epidemic in relation to its high economic development and population density, as well as a large number of migrant workers. The region-and risk-specific assessment results may provide a reference for effective prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in the province.
作者
屠鸿薇
钟若曦
肖建鹏
肖玲钰
李艳
宋铁
TU Hong-wei;ZHONG Ruo-xi;XIAO Jian-peng(Institute of Nutrition and Food Hygiene,Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Guangzhou,Guangdong Province 511430,China)
出处
《中国公共卫生》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期486-492,共7页
Chinese Journal of Public Health
关键词
新冠肺炎
分级分区防控
风险评估
coronavirus disease 2019
region-and risk-specific management
risk assessment
