摘要
采用系统动力学原理,理顺不同系统间复杂关系,构建整个系统动力学环境承载力仿真模型,预测福州市生态环境未来变化趋势.根据福州市发展政策,以不同经济发展情况、环保投入设置3种情形,模拟福州市(2018-2022年)区域环境状况,分析适合于福州市最佳情形.结果表明,以经济稳定发展、人口稳定增长、环保投入稳定作为参照情形1,污染物排放量未明显改善;经济优先为情形2,不仅经济较好发展、环保资金投入也随之提升,污染物排放量大幅减少;经济发展放缓为情形3,经济增长最慢,污染物排放减少量不及情形2.其结果为今后决策管理部门在预警和改善生态环境方面提供科学依据.
With the rapid development of Fuzhou city, it has brought about population explosion, traffic congestion and deterioration of the urban environment. Therefore, it is urgent to study the issues related to the overall carrying capacity of the regional environment. Based on the principle of system dynamics, the complex relationships among different systems are straightened out, and a simulation model of the environmental carrying capacity of the whole system dynamics is established to predict the future change trend of Fuzhou’s ecological environment. According to Fuzhou’s development policy, three scenarios are set based on different economic development conditions and environmental protection investment to predict the regional environmental situation in Fuzhou city(2018-2022) and analyze the best scenario. The results show that the stable development of economy, the stable growth of population and the stable investment in environmental protection are taken as the reference scenario 1 and the emission of pollutants has not improved significantly. The economic priority development is the scenario 2, and it not only has the economy developed better, but the investment in environmental protection funds has also increased. The emission of pollutants has decreased significantly and the slowdown in economic development is the scenario 3, economic growth is the slowest and the emission reduction of pollutants is not as good as the scenario 2. The results provide scientific basis for future decision-making management departments in early warning and improvement of ecological environment.
作者
胡典
旷开金
刘金福
HU Dian;KUANG Kaijin;LIU Jinfu(College of Computer and Information Science,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;Key Laboratory of Ecology and Resources Statistics of Universities,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China;College of Finance,Fujian Jiangxia University,Fuzhou 350108,China)
出处
《福建师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第3期90-98,共9页
Journal of Fujian Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(31770678)
福建省中青年教师教育科研项目(JT180584)
生态与资源统计福建省高校重点实验室开放课题组(PTJH1701102)。
关键词
环境承载力
系统动力学
仿真预测
福州市
environmental carrying capacity
system dynamics
simulation prediction
Fuzhou City
