摘要
台风活动频次为每年汛期气象会商的重要内容之一,目前所使用的方案主要以数值模拟结果为主,且无法进行定量分析.本文采用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的月平均高度场资料,基于其偏差信息,利用同化模型中的代价函数构建了一些表征西北太平洋5-10月间月尺度台风活动频次的指数,并利用这些指数建立了台风活跃季月活动频次指数模型.分析结果表明,该指数序列与台风频次序列的相关系数达0.7以上,且指数模型能很好地表征台风活跃季月频次信息,可为台风月尺度活动频次预测提供参考.
Prediction of typhoon frequency is one of the important contents in flood season meteorological consultation.At present,the schemes used in the consultation are mainly based on model-outputs,and not suitable for quantitative analysis.In this paper,the monthly average data of height from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP)and the deviation information are applied in establishing some indexes to characterize monthly occurrence of typhoon in the western North Pacific during May to October using the cost function of data assimilation models,and an index model of the monthly frequency of typhoon during active seasons is established.The results show that the correlation coefficients between the index series and the typhoon frequency series reach above 0.7,and the model based on the indexes is a good indicator of the monthly frequency information of typhoon during active seasons,which provides a good reference in predicting the monthly frequency of typhoon.
作者
陈璇
郑崇伟
左常鹏
杜鑫
黄颖慧
CHEN Xuan;ZHENG Chongwei;ZUO Changpeng;DU Xin;HUANG Yinghui(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Shandong Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China;No.75839 Troops of the Chinese People's Liberation Army,Guangzhou 510510,China;Dalian Naval Academy,Dalian 116018,China;No.92515 Troops of the Chinese People's Liberation Army,Huludao 125000,China)
出处
《厦门大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期394-400,共7页
Journal of Xiamen University：Natural Science
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFB0904201)。
关键词
偏差
指数
台风频次
西北太平洋
deviation
index
typhoon frequency
western North Pacific
