摘要
在新冠肺炎的阴影下,不论是防疫专家抑或芸芸众生,都不免力图在既有的疫情趋势中寻求向好迹象。于是传染病疫情统计中常见的峰值、拐点等专业名词,在媒体报道与社会期望中,逐渐成为口耳相传的大众日常用语。依据传染病疫情统计的发展史,简要回顾峰值与拐点在传染病疫情统计学中出现的历史过程,再通过近代以来重要疫情分析中社会大众如何接纳传染病疫情统计与疫情预测可以发现,峰值与拐点在传染病疫情统计中的运用,本应属于将统计方法引入公共卫生学科的科技史范畴,但随着大众对疫情关注视角的转变,人们将原本仅具有统计学意义的传染病疫情"统计拐点",置换为代表疫情向好趋势之"心理拐点",使之沾染社会建构之意涵。要言之,从医学史的角度厘清近代传染病疫情统计之兴起梗概,反思疫情统计拐点与社会心理拐点在防疫史脉络中的纠葛,有助于正确处理大众对于疫情演变的期待、落差与可能影响。
Under the shadow of COVID-19 pandemics,searching signs of turning point is a common expectation of the public and experts.The statistical terms like peak and inflection point are regularly revealed in various media,become common expressions in daily life.By reviewing the development of epidemiological statistics and appearing of the concepts of peak and inflection point in the past centuries,it is obvious that the professional meanings of these terms have been compromised to satisfy popular psychology during the periods of epidemics.Therefore,the original definitions and applications of inflection point are underminingly tampered by vague common use of"turning point"due to the scenario of social constructionism.In sum,this article aims to briefly review the history of epidemiological statistics,clarify the tangle between professional use of inflection point with popular mind-set of turning point in experiencing epidemics.This research intents to provide clues for the public to understand the professional numbers and form rational expectations.
出处
《探索与争鸣》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期252-263,292,共13页
Exploration and Free Views
关键词
新冠肺炎
传染病疫情统计
拐点
大众心理
社会建构论
COVID-19
epidemiological statistics
inflection point
popular psychology
social constructionism
