摘要
中国经济的本质问题是:在经过经济高速增长、工业化进程几乎已经结束时,如何继续保持全要素生产率的增速。对全要素生产率未来增速的判断,很大程度上决定了我们对中、长期中国经济的判断。历史上还没有任何国家在完成了工业化进程之后还能保持3%左右的全要素生产率年均增速,中国有没有可能再创造一个奇迹?中国经济保持全要素生产率增速的关键在于有效释放四大经济增长新动能:"再工业化"(产业的数字化转型)、"新基建"(实现"再工业化"所需的基础设施投资)、大国工业以及更彻底的改革开放带来的资源配置效率的提升。
Can China still maintain a high TFP growth rate after its industrialization is almost done?Answers to this essential question vary among the people who hold different viewpoints on Chinese economy.Nocountry in the history of mankind is able to maintain a TFP annual growth rate close to 3%after its industrialization.Is China exceptional?This paper argues that four structural forces could very possibly allow China to achieve such an economic miracle.They are respectively the digitalization of economy,new infrastructure investment,developing indispensable industries for an emerging global power,and efficiency enhancement as a result of further reforms and opening up.
作者
刘俏
Liu Qiao(Guanghua School of Management,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)
出处
《北京大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期99-104,共6页
Journal of Peking University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
国家杰出青年科学基金(项目编号:71325004).
关键词
全要素生产率增速
再工业化
新基建
大国工业
改革开放
TFP(total factor productivity)growth rate
re-industrialization
new infrastructure investment
industries for a major global power
reform and opening up
