摘要
文章从生态环境、经济、社会和水资源4个子系统中选取13项可持续利用水平评价因子构建综合评估体系,结合玛纳斯河流域水资源管理规划和水环境保护目标要求将其划分为高、中、低3个等级,然后对玛纳斯河流域水资源可持续利用关键性制约因子及其不同时期水平运用改进的诊断模型和突变技术法评价。研究表明:玛纳斯河流域2005年、2015年和2025年3个不同时期,其水资源可持续利用综合评价值由最初的0.688不断上升至2025年的0.831,总体达到Ⅱ级中等水平;玛纳斯河流域普遍存在水资源利用率过高、植被覆盖度低和资源性缺水等问题,可为新疆玛纳斯河流域水资源优化配置和最严格水资源管理提供重要的数据支撑。
In this paper,13 sustainable use level evaluation factors were selected to build a comprehensive evaluation system from four sub-systems composed of ecological environment,economy,society and water resources,combined with the Manas river basin water resources management planning and water environment protection target requirements,it can be divided into three grades:of high,medium and low,and then the key restriction factors of sustainable utilization of water resources in the Manas river basin and its level in different periods were evaluated by the improved diagnostic model and mutation technical method.The research shows that the comprehensive evaluation value of sustainable utilization of water resources in the Manas river basin in 2005,2015 and 2025 rose constantly from 0.688 at the beginning to 0.831 in 2025,and the overall level reached a medium level of grade 2;there are many problems in the Manas river basin,such as high water utilization rate,low vegetation coverage and resource shortage,which can provide important data support for the optimal allocation of water resources and the strictest water resource management in the Manas river basin in Xinjiang.
作者
周学磊
ZHOU Xue-lei(Manasi River Watershed Management Bureau,Xinjiang Manasi 832200, China)
出处
《黑龙江水利科技》
2020年第3期163-167,共5页
Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology
关键词
诊断模型
突变级数法
玛纳斯河流域
可持续利用
diagnostic model
mutation series method
Manasi river basin
sustainable use
