摘要
制造业是实体经济的主体,如今房地产行业的繁荣不仅阻碍了制造业的发展,也造成大量资金出现了结构性错配。利用2006—2017年我国35个大中城市面板数据,运用系统GMM方法分析房地产行业的信贷规模对制造业的影响,结果显示:总体而言,房地产行业信贷规模对制造业存在一定的挤出效应,挤出系数为0.061;分区域来看,在二三线城市中房地产行业信贷规模对制造业也存在挤出效应,挤出系数为0.083,但在一线城市中却呈现出一定的加速效应;随着经济周期的变化,房地产行业信贷规模对制造业的挤出效应逐渐减少。因此,要规范金融市场和房地产市场发展秩序,逐渐消除制造业发展的融资制约,促进制造业和房地产业协调发展。
The manufacturing industry is the main body of the real economy.The prosperity of the real estate industry not only hinders the development of the manufacturing industry,but also causes structural mismatches in a large amount of funds.Using the panel data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2006 to 2017,the paper used system's GMM method to analyze the impact of the credit scale of the real estate industry on manufacturing industry.The result shows that there are certain crowding out effect in manufacturing industry caused by real estate industry credit scale.The squeeze coefficient is 0.061.In terms of regions,the real estate industry credit scale also has a crowding out effect on manufacturing industry in second and third tier cities.The squeeze coefficient is 0.083,but it shows a certain acceleration effect in first tier cities.With the change of the economic cycle,the crowding out effect of the credit scale of the real estate industry on manufacturing industry has gradually decreased.Therefore,it is necessary to standardize the development order of the financial market and the real estate market,gradually eliminate financing constraints for the development of the manufacturing industry,and promoting the coordinated development of the manufacturing and real estate industries.
作者
吴蕾
Wu Lei(Business School,Anhui University of Technology,Ma'anshan 243000,China)
出处
《金融理论探索》
2020年第2期20-31,共12页
Exploration of Financial Theory
关键词
房地产行业
制造业
信贷规模
挤出效应
挤出系数
real estate industry
manufacturing
credit scale
crowding out effect
crowding out coefficient
