摘要
针对武器效能评估的指标值以及度量指标权重的选取存在不确定性、模糊性和主观性的问题,根据作战效能的特点与系统工程思想,提出了基于区间数的灰色关联法和D-S证据理论相结合的效能评估方法。通过灰色关联法将指标区间值转化为以理想属性偏离度为测度的矩阵,在此基础上与D-S证据理论相结合,构造一种新的基本概率分配函数和新的信息不确定度提取方法,把不确定性问题转化为确定性问题,再利用D-S合成法则进行信息融合,确定最优方案。通过案例分析,结果表明该方法可以得到有效的决策结果并降低决策的不确定性。
According to the characteristics of combat effectiveness and system engineering thoughts,for the problem of uncertainties and ambiguities in the index values of operational plans,as well as uncertainty and subjectivity in the selection of the index weight,an effectiveness evaluation method based on grey correlation of interval number and D-S evidence theory is proposed.A matrix of interval is converted into the matrix of measures with ideal attribute deviations by grey correlation method.Then an uncertain problem is converted into the certain problem which can be addressed relatively easier.A combination of the grey correlation and D-S evidence theory is presented based on the uncertain problem,constructing a novel method extracting the degree of ignorance for information and a new method for basic probability assignment function.The Dempster combination rule of information fusion is applied to choose the optimal case.Finally,a numerical example is utilized to illustrate that a satisfying conclusion and an obvious decrease of decision making can be obtained.
作者
陈星
李战武
高春庆
胡晓东
任帆
CHEN Xing;LI Zhan-wu;GAO Chun-qing;HU Xiao-dong;REN Fan(College of Aeronautics Engineering,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710038,China;College of Electronic Communication,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China;Unit 93558 of PLA,Shijiazhuang 051330,China)
出处
《火力与指挥控制》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第4期163-168,共6页
Fire Control & Command Control
关键词
效能
区间数
灰色关联
证据理论
决策
effectiveness
interval number
grey correlation
evidence theory
decision making
