摘要
基于水利部信息中心业务平台技术和云南省相关气象资料评价体系,分析20世纪60年代以来实测气象干旱过程,结合灾情记载,重建云南气温、降水气候变化和干旱灾害的60年序列,综述干旱环境变化过程分析,研讨区域干旱灾害时空分布特征和年际、年代际变化,试析干旱发展变化的大气物理机制。继20世纪末叶的干旱趋势,在21世纪初中国和东亚旱涝格局发生重大转变的同时,西南地区年代际气温普遍趋增、年代际与年际降水趋减,干旱化态势持续,干旱灾害发展,云南尤甚。注意到随部分大气环流要素正、负位相在世纪交接前后的相互转化,20世纪70年代以来中国东部"南涝北旱"形势,正在发生深刻、复杂的变异,出现东部"北涝南旱"、西南持续干旱化的新格局,严重影响和决定着云南水旱形势。这一趋势涉及未来云南气候的发展和变化,影响政府和社会应对。
Based on the operational platform technology of the Information Center of the Ministry of Water Resources and the meteorological data evaluation system of Yunnan Province,the observed meteorological drought process since 1960’s is analyzed in this paper,and the 60-year sequence of temperature,precipitation,climate change and drought disaster in Yunnan is reconstructed according to the disaster record. Then,the process analysis of drought environment changes are summarized,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of regional drought disaster and the inter-annual and inter-decadal changes are discussed,and the atmospheric physical mechanism of the development and changes of the drought are researched. With the drought trend at the end of the last century,and the drastic changes in the pattern of droughts and floods in China and East Asia at the beginning of the 21 st century,the inter-decadal temperatures in the southwestern region have generally increased,inter-decadal and inter-annual precipitation have decreased,the trend of drought has continued,and drought disasters have developed,especially in Yunnan province. It is noted that with the mutual transformation of the positive and negative phases of some atmospheric circulation elements at the turn of the century,the situation of"Southern Floods and North Droughts" in eastern China has been undergoing profound and complex changes since the1970 s. And the new patterns of "North Floods and South Droughts" in the east and continued drought in the southwest have appeared.This trend seriously affects and determines the situation of floods and droughts in Yunnan,involving future climate development and changes in Yunnan,and affecting governmental and social responses.
作者
徐海亮
XU Hailiang(Disaster History Professional Committee of China Association for Disaster Prevention,Beijing,China 102208)
出处
《昆明学院学报》
2020年第2期24-35,共12页
Journal of Kunming University
基金
云南大学周琼教授主持的2017年度国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国西南少数民族灾害文化数据库建设”研究(17ZDA158)的中期成果内容“西南气候环境变化”之一。
关键词
旱涝序列
气象干旱
云南干旱化
南北变化
drought and flood series
meteorological drought
aridification in Yunnan
North-South changes
