摘要
基于镇域尺度通过获取2020年1月21日-2月20日河南省新型冠状病毒(新冠病毒)肺炎病例的数据信息,利用空间分析法、核密度估算法,从四个时间节点分析疫情的空间演化、空间集聚、输入与扩散等分布特征.结果表明:①从时空演化看,时间维度上2月10日以前河南省累计确诊病例迅速攀升,2月10日后增长幅度趋于平缓.值得一说的是,前期单日新增病例呈波动上升,至2月3日达到峰值,之后呈波动式递减.从空间维度看,"南重北轻"、"东南多西北少"的特点凸出,与河南省的经济空间结构基本呈相反的特征.②从空间集聚特征来看,病例集聚特征在空间上基本保持稳定,整体呈现"五核"的集聚格局,东南部地区集聚现象出现较为迟缓且集聚程度较低.③从性别与结构特征来看,男性患者占据总病例数的55%,女性患者占总病例数的45%.年龄结构中,主要为中年人,占比达50%;其次为青年人,占比为38%;老年、少年和童年人群患病相对较少.④从输入与扩散的分布特征来看,河南省累计确诊病例中以输入型为主,占据病例总数的52%,扩散型病例占据病例总数的34%,剩余14%为其他感染类型.从空间上看,输入型病例的分布与河南省病例空间分布格局高度一致,由于输入型病例基数较大,扩散型病例的分布仍然以信阳、南阳两地为主,但相比之下集聚程度有所减弱.
Based on the township scale,through the acquisition of data information of COVID-19 cases in Henan Province from January 21 to February 20,2020,the distribution characteristics of spatial evolution,spatial agglomeration,input and diffusion of the epidemic were analyzed from four time nodes by using the methods of spatial analysis and Kernel density estimation. The results were shown as follows. Firstly,from the perspective of time and space evolution,the cumulative diagnosed cases in Henan Province increased rapidly before February 10 th in the time dimension,and the growth rate flattened after February 10 th. It is worth mentioning that the number of new cases fluctuated on a single day and reached to a peak on February 3,and then fluctuated and decreased. From the perspective of spatial pattern,it showed that the numbers of cases in south and southeast Henan were more than in north and northwest Henan,which was opposite to the economic spatial structure of Henan Province. Secondly,from the perspective of spatial agglomeration,the case agglomeration characteristics remained basically stable in space,and five core agglomeration areas could be seen in the spatial pattern. The agglomeration phenomenon in the southeast region appeared relatively slow and the concentration degree was low. Thirdly,from the perspective of gender and structural characteristics,male patients accounted for 55% of the total number of cases,and female patients accounted for45%. Among the age structure,the largest proportion was middle-aged people,which account for 50% of the total confirmed cases. The second proportion was young patients,which account for 38%. The elderly,adolescent and childhood populations were relatively less ill. Fourthly,from the perspective of input-diffusion characteristics,the input type was the main type of confirmed cases in Henan Province,accounting for 52% of the total number of cases.The diffusion type cases accounted for 34% of the total number of cases,and the remaining 14% cases were other infection types. F
作者
简子菡
丁志伟
JIAN Zihan;DING Zhiwei(College of Environment and Planning/Research Center of Regional Development and Planning,Henan University,Kaifeng 475004,Henan China;Henan Collaborative Innovation Center for Urban-Rural Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou 450046,China)
出处
《河南科学》
2020年第3期476-484,共9页
Henan Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41701130)
2020年度河南省高校创新人才支持计划项目(20HASTIT017)
河南省研究生教育优质课程建设项目(HNYJS2016KC24)。
