摘要
本文基于一套新口径城投债数据,从土地资源在不同行业和用途的扭曲配置视角探究其对地方政府债务的影响,将土地资源错配、城市蔓延和地方政府债务置于统一分析框架,就其中的作用机理进行刻画。研究发现,整体来看土地资源错配显著推升了城投债的发行概率和发行规模,尤其在中西部区域人口流出的中小城市,该影响更为显著。城市蔓延在土地资源错配对城市债务的正向影响中具有部分中介作用,其通过降低土地产出效益、增加市政基础设施投资建设和管理维护支出等渠道增加地方政府债务。本文为解释中国地方政府债务的形成提供了一个新视角,推进土地要素渐进式市场化改革,坚持“内涵式”的高质量城市空间增长模式,是未来债务风险长效治理的重点方向。
Based on a set of new-caliber urban investment debt data, this article explores the impact of land resources on land government debt from the perspective of distorted allocation of land resources in different industries and uses, for the first time puts land resource mismatch, urban sprawl, and local government debt into a unified analyze framework, and characterize its mechanism of action. The study finds that the overall mismatch of land resources significantly increased the issuance probability and scale of urban investment bonds, especially in small and medium-sized cities with population outflows in the central and western regions. Urban sprawl plays a part of the intermediary role in the positive impact of mismatched land resources on urban debt. Spread increases local government debt through channels such as reducing land output benefits, increasing municipal infrastructure construction investment and management and maintenance expenditures. This article provides a new perspective to explain the formation of local government debt in China. Promoting the progressive market-oriented reform of land elements and adhering to the"connotative"high-quality urban space growth model is a key direction of long-term debt risk management in the future.
作者
毛文峰
陆军
Mao Wen-feng;Lu Jun
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第4期80-88,共9页
Economist
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“中国城市精细化管理:体制机制、运营模式与实施保障研究”(17VZL019)。
关键词
土地资源错配
城市蔓延
城投债
Land Resource Mismatch
Urban Sprawl
Urban Investment Debt
