摘要
目的分析中国大陆31个省市手足口病的发病情况,从宏观角度探讨气象和社会经济因素与手足口病的时空变化关系。方法收集并整理2016年12个月份手足口病数据和宏观因素指标,利用负二项广义可加时空模型进行建模,并在贝叶斯分层结构框架下运用嵌套拉普拉斯逼近(Bayesian-Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation)方法估计模型。结果分析结果显示,在气象和社会经济因素中,平均气温的影响最为显著(RR=2.8775,95%CI:2.3305~3.5516),手足口病的发病相对危险呈双高峰模式,其中5、6月以及11、12月发病相对危险较高,且手足口病的发病相对危险呈空间异质性。结论手足口病的发病相对危险的时空特性需引起重视,建议相关部门加强对重点地区的预防,并将季节变换时期做为重点防控时期,谨防气象因素变化尤其是气温变化导致手足口病疫情的恶化。
Objective To explore the spatio-temporal variation relationship betweenclimate and socioeconomic factors and Hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD)from a macro perspective by using provinces-level HFMD data for 31 China's Mainland Provinces.Methods Collect and organize the HFMD data and macro factors in the 12 months of 2016,use the negative binomial generalized time-space model,and use Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation under the Bayesian hierarchical framework(Bayesian-Integrated Nested LaplaceApproximation)method estimation model.Results Our analysis suggest that:among the climate and socioeconomic factors,the average temperature had the most significant effect(RR=2.8775,95%CI:2.3305~3.5516).The relative riskof HFMD was in a double-peak pattern,including May,June,November and December,the relative risk was relatively high,andthe relative risk of hand,foot and mouth disease was spatially heterogeneous.Conclusion The spatio-temporal characteristics of the relative risk of HFMD need to be paid attention to.Suggests that relevant departments strengthen the prevention of key areas,and take the seasonal change period as the key prevention and control period,and beware of changes in climate factors,especially temperature changes leading to HFMD epidemics deterioration.
作者
赵文铀
郑良芳
张辉国
胡锡健
Zhao Wenyou;Zheng Liangfang;Zhang Huiguo(College of Mathematics and System Science,Xinjiang University,830046,Urumqi)
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第1期6-9,共4页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics
基金
国家自然科学基金(11961065)
新疆高校科研计划项目(XJEDU2017M001)。
