摘要
面对国内外风险挑战明显上升的复杂局面,2019年中国经济总体运行平稳,主要宏观指标均处在年初预定的目标范围。当然,一些突发事件仍有可能冲击中国经济运行的稳定。此次疫情对2020年第一季度经济增长的冲击不容小觑,预计2020年第一季度经济增速大概率处于4.0%-4.9%的区间。但总体来看,此次疫情不会改变中国经济中长期走势。新冠肺炎疫情爆发后,中央政府针对疫情防控采取了多项财政和税收优惠政策,各地也纷纷推出相应的支持性政策。在地方结构性政策基础上,中央政府针对疫情冲击还需推出相应的结构性支持政策并适时扩大总量政策力度,保持经济被冲击后能较快恢复到原有增长轨道。结构性政策主要用于支持相关受损地区、行业和群体,而总量政策主要用于恢复,这应该成为2020年的政策主线。
In the complex situation of increasing risks and challenges at home and abroad,Chinese economy has maintained overall stability in 2019,and its main macro indicators are in the target range set at the beginning of the year.Without doubt,some emergencies may still impact the stability of Chinese economy.The impact brought by this epidemic is not trivial on the economic growth in the fi rst quarter of 2020,which is expected to be in the range of 4.0%-4.9%.But on the whole,the epidemic will not change the medium&long term trend of Chinese economy.Since the outbreak of COVID-19,the central government has adopted a number of preferential fi scal and tax policies for prevention and control of the epidemic,and local governments have also introduced the corresponding supportive policies.Based on the local structural policies,the central government also needs to introduce the corresponding structural supportive policies in response to the epidemic impacts and timely enlarge the aggregate policies to ensure that the economy can still return to its original growth after the impacts.The structural policies are mainly used to support the damaged industries and groups,while the aggregate policies are mainly used for restoration,which should be the focus of the policies in 2020.
作者
张平
杨耀武
Zhang Ping;Yang Yaowu
出处
《中国经济报告》
2020年第2期4-16,共13页
CHINA POLICY REVIEW
