摘要
近些年,我国跨境贸易人民币结算经历了从无到有的发展过程。在贸易结算货币选择的研究框架下,利用2012~2018年影响跨境人民币结算数据,建立误差修正模型并得出:跨境贸易人民币结算量是一个具有时间趋势的指标;中国进出口贸易的扩大,会在短期促进跨境贸易人民币结算,若要持续促进,还需实施贸易结构调整等措施;人民币贬值有利于跨境贸易人民币结算量提升;一定的通货膨胀会刺激跨境贸易人民币结算量增长;宽松的货币政策在短期会拉低跨境贸易人民币结算量,在长期会促进跨境贸易人民币结算。应从推进产业结构升级、使用货币政策等逆周期调节政策、维持汇率稳定以及继续完善跨境贸易人民币政策等方面促进跨境贸易人民币结算的发展,推进贸易便利化。
In recent years,China's cross-border trade settlement in RMB has experienced a change in development process from scratch.Under the research framework of trade settlement currency selection,an error correction model is established in this paper based on the data affecting cross-border settlement in RMB from 2012 to 2018.It is concluded that the volume of cross-border trade settlement in RMB is an indicator with time trend.The expansion of China's import and export trade will promote the settlement of cross-border trade in RMB in the short-term.Some measures should be taken such as trade restructuring if this expansion could continue to promote the import and export trade.The depreciation of the RMB will help increase the amount of RMB settlement in cross-border trade.Certain inflation will stimulate the growth of RMB settlement in cross-border trade.The easy monetary policy will decrease the amount of RMB settlement in cross-border trade in the short term and promote the settlement of cross-border trade in RMB in the long run.In order to promote the development of RMB settlement of cross-border trade and strengthen the trade facilitation,it is important to promote the industrial structure upgrading.Some countercyclical adjustment policies such as monetary policies should be implemented as well.It is still crucial to maintain exchange rate stability and improve the cross-border trade RMB policy.
作者
刘丽娟
赵恒
王丽佳
LIU Li-juan;ZHAO Heng;WANG Li-jia(School of International Economics and Trade,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China;Changchun University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China)
出处
《税务与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期15-20,共6页
Taxation and Economy
关键词
跨境贸易
人民币结算
结算货币选择
误差修正模型
cross-border trade
RMB settlement
settlement currency selection
error correction model
