摘要
本文以国民经济生产、使用和收入分配为基本框架,运用相应统计指标和统计数据对2019年中国经济运行情况进行分析,对2020年情况予以展望。2019年,中国GDP增速呈回落走势,但始终处于预期目标范围内,第三产业和消费需求分别从生产和需求角度对经济增长起主要拉动作用;全国居民人均可支配收入保持平稳增长,规模以上工业企业利润总额由2018年较快增长转为下降;居民消费价格涨幅比2018年有所扩大;产业结构、需求结构和收入分配结构继续改善;新经济新动能保持较快增长。初步判断,2020年中国GDP增速可能会比2019年有所回落;创新驱动政策将会推动新经济新动能继续保持较快增长,减缓传统经济下行压力;投资需求增速与2019年大体持平,消费需求和净出口需求增速比2019年有所回落;全国居民人均可支配收入和规模以上工业企业利润总额增速比2019年有所回落。
In this paper,we analyze and forecast Chinese economic performance in 2019 and 2020 using statistical data and indicators,based on production,consumption and distribution in national accounting.In 2019,the GDP growth in China dropped,but still within the targeted range.The service industry and consumption demand drive the economy from the production and the demand side,respectively.Disposable income per capita in China as a whole kept increasing at a steady rate.The profits of enterprises above designated size decreased,in contrast with a fast growth in the previous year.Consumer price increased more than that of the previous year.The structures of industry,demand,and income distribution continued to improve.The“new economy”and“new momentum”kept increasing rapidly.As for 2020,based on preliminary forecast,GDP growth in China will drop in 2020.Innovation stimulating policies will persistently push the growth of the“new economy”and“new momentum”,mitigating the downward pressure of the traditional economy.Investment demand growth will keep at the similar level as that of 2019,while the growth of consumption and export demands,disposable income per capita and the profits of enterprises above designated size will be smaller than those of the previous year.
作者
许宪春
刘瑾钰
XU Xianchun;LIU Jinyu(Tsinghua University,Beijing,China)
出处
《经济学动态》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期3-13,共11页
Economic Perspectives
关键词
统计数据
经济运行
分析
展望
Statistical Data
Economic Performance
Analysis
Outlook
