摘要
以政府经济政策不确定性为出发点,通过构建VAR模型,选取1995-2018年间月度数据进行脉冲响应分析。研究发现,当期经济政策的波动对其自身存在近8个月的抑制效应;FDI的流入加大时,在较短时期会抑制投资者投资;经济政策不确定性增大时,会在短时期内通过影响投资者预期,进而抑制FDI的流入;就国内而言,东中西部FDI差异较大,从东部到西部,随着区域经济发展水平的减弱,FDI对经济政策变动的敏感性逐步增强,不确定性加大,对区域引入FDI的抑制时间和强度也显著增大。研究结果表明,政府在制定及调整宏观经济政策时,要尽可能保证政策的持续性和稳定性;中西部地方政府应在加强自身相关基础设施、服务能力的基础上,配套相关区域FDI引入政策,以减小经济政策不确定性对区域引入FDI的影响。
Based on the uncertainty of government’s economic policy,a VAR model is constructed and the monthly data from 1995 to 2018 are selected for impulse response analysis. It is found that the fluctuation of the current economic policy has a restraining effect on itself for nearly eight months;when the inflow of FDI increases,it will restrain the investment of investors in a short period;when the uncertainty of the economic policy increases,it will restrain the inflow of FDI by influencing the expectation of investors in a short period. As for China,the difference of FDI between the East,the middle and the west is large,from the east to the west,along with the regional economy with the weakening of economic development level,the sensitivity of FDI to the change of economic policy is gradually enhanced,the uncertainty is increased,and the inhibition time and intensity of regional FDI are also significantly increased. The results show that when making and adjusting macro-economic policies,the government should ensure the continuity and stability of the policies as much as possible;the local governments in the central and western regions should,on the basis of strengthening their own relevant infrastructure and service capacity,support relevant regional FDI introduction policies to reduce the impact of economic policy uncertainty on regional FDI introduction.
作者
单东方
SHAN Dong-fang(School of Economics,Shanxi University of Finance and Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第3期42-49,共8页
On Economic Problems
基金
山西省软科学研究项目“矢量评价视角下山西省城镇化协调耦合推进研究”(2017041033-6)
山西省研究生教育创新项目“山西资源型经济转型现阶段创新能力评价研究”(2018BY088)。
