摘要
研究地区财政收入和财政支出变化趋势,对合理编制地方预算、保证政府机构的正常运转、统筹区域经济社会发展、保障民生和维护社会稳定等方面具有重要意义。VAR模型常用于多个相关联的时间序的预测,并且能够揭示关联时间序列之间的联系。运用VAR模型对江苏省财政收入和财政支出进行预测,对于财政收入的平均预测误差为3.75242%,对于财政支出的平均预测误差为4.55408%。由模型预测得到2019年江苏省财政收入为8863.977亿元,财政支出为12885.18亿元。
It is of great significance to study the changing trend of regional fiscal revenue and expenditure in order to reasonably draw up local budgets,ensure the normal operation of government agencies,coordinate regional economic and social development,guarantee people's livelihood and maintain social stability.The VAR model is often used for prediction of multiple related time series,and can reveal the connection between related time series.The VAR model was used to predict the fiscal revenue and fiscal expenditure of Jiangsu Province.The average forecast error for fiscal revenue was 3.75242%,and the average forecast error for fiscal expenditure was 4.55408%.The model predicts that Jiangsu's fiscal revenue in 2019 will be 886.3977.7 billion yuan,and fiscal expenditure will be 1,288.518 billion tons.
作者
宋良美
SONG Liang-mei(School of Business,Hubei University,Wuhan,Hubei,430070)
出处
《徐州工程学院学报（社会科学版）》
2020年第1期48-58,共11页
Journal of Xuzhou Institute of Technology：Social Sciences Edition
基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目“新时期财税制度改革和创新研究”(18FZX069)。
关键词
江苏
财政支出
财政收入
预测
VAR模型
Jiangsu
fiscal expenditure
fiscal revenue
prediction
VAR model
