摘要
本文利用2007-2019年月度数据,通过SVAR模型和MS-VAR模型对比分析,研究了我国国有投资对民间投资的挤入和挤出效应。结果发现:从SVAR模型给出的平均脉冲响应看,样本期内国有投资对民间投资起到了挤出作用;但考虑经济结构性变点的MS-VAR模型表明,样本期内国有投资的弱挤入区制保持较高发生概率,与此同时,2011-2018年,国有投资强挤入民间投资区制发生的概率较高,2010年之前和2019年之后,国有投资挤出民间投资区制的发生概率较高。基于此,本文认为未来一段时期内国有投资可能会一定程度上挤出民间投资,因此应谨慎增加国有投资,重点加强营商环境建设。
Based on the monthly data of 2007-2019,this paper studies the crowding-in and crowding-out effects of government public investment on private investment through the comparative analysis using SVAR model and MS-VAR model.The results show that:from the average impulse response given by SVAR model,government public investment played a crowding-out role on private investment in the sample period;but MS-VAR model considering the structural characteristics of the economy shows that the weak crowding-in zone of government investment maintains a high probability during the sample period.Meanwhile,in 2011-2018,the probability of strong crowding-in zone of government investment was high.Before 2010 and after 2019,the probability of crowding-out zone of government investment was high.Based on this,this paper argues that public investment may crowd out private investment to a certain extent in the future.Therefore,we should increase government public investment cautiously and focus on strengthening the construction of business environment.
出处
《公共财政研究》
2019年第6期59-73,共15页
Public Finance Research Journal
