摘要
水热耦合平衡Budyko方程被广泛地应用于水文过程模拟和水资源预测中。目前,多数应用均基于方程唯一的参数在未来气候条件下恒定不变这一假设,这个假设与实际的气候变化与人类活动影响下流域特征改变的事实不符。为此,本研究综合考虑不同气候情景下Budyko参数的动态变化,选取了代表我国不同气候区的3个典型流域(松花江流域、黄河源区和珠江流域),通过研究其水文气象变量的变化趋势,计算并分析Budyko参数的变化规律。利用基于Budyko方程的动态水量平衡模型,采用CMIP5中4种气候模式的3种情景分别预测3个流域未来的水资源量,进而评价Budyko参数改变对水文响应预测的影响。结果发现:黄河流域2021—2050年间降水、潜在蒸发均增大,径流减小;松花江流域未来降水、潜在蒸发、径流均增加;珠江流域未来径流在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下仅GFDL模式下的径流增加,其余3个气候模式下的径流减少。与基于恒定Budyko模型参数预测的径流相比,黄河流域由于未来下垫面改变会加剧该区水资源量减少,松花江流域下垫面的改变更将造成该区未来水资源量的增加,珠江流域下垫面的改变对Budyko模型预测该区未来径流改变不明显。研究结果为变化环境下的水文模拟与水资源研究开辟了新的思路。
Budyko hydrothermal coupled equilibrium equation has been widely applied in hydrological process simulation and water resources prediction.Currently,most applications are based on the assumption that the only parameter of Budyko-type equation is constant under future climate conditions,which is inconsistent with the fact that the actual climate change and the change of basin characteristics under the influence of human activities.Under this background,this study comprehensively considered the dynamic changes of Budyko parameter under different climate scenarios,selected three typical river basins representing different climate regions in China(Songhua River basin,Yellow River source region and Pearl River basin),and calculated and analyzed the changing characteristics of Budyko parameter by studying the changing trends of their hydrometeorological variables.Using the Budyko equation based dynamic water balance model,three scenarios of the four climate models CMIP5 were used to respectively predict the future water resources in three basins,and then to evaluate the impact of Budyko parameter changes on hydrological response prediction.The results showed that precipitation and potential evaporation increased and runoff decreased in the Yellow River source region from 2021 to 2050.The future precipitation,potential evaporation and runoff all increase in Songhua river basin.For the future runoff in the Pearl River basin,runoff in only GFDL model increased,while runoff in the other three climate models decreased under the scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.Compared with the runoff predicted by the constant Budyko model,the change of the underlying surface in the Yellow River source region will aggravate the decrease of water resources in the region in the future,and the change of the underlying surface in the Songhua River basin will cause the increase of water resources in the region in the future.The results provide a new idea for hydrological simulation and water resources research under changing environment.
作者
石清
邢万秋
SHI Qing;XING Wanqiu(China Metallurgical Group Corporation Huatian Nanjing Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd,Nanjing 210019,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》
2020年第1期35-43,共9页
Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51809073)
