摘要
2020年,随着新冠肺炎疫情波及全国,中国经济料将承受阶段性冲击。我们认为,为避免短期冲击向长期风险演变,货币政策亟待提早发力。一方面,不同于"非典"时期,受本次疫情制约,积极财政或将遭遇规模、时滞、效力的瓶颈,亟待货币政策率先破局。另一方面,伴随通胀约束和期限利差约束的纾解,未来贷款市场报价利率(LPR)"降息"的空间有望温和扩张,将为货币政策提供发力支撑。由此,我们预判,2020年全面降准、LPR"降息"等总量性工具有望部分前移,结构性工具有望侧重疫情地区、服务业和中小企业。2020年中国经济有望实现低开高走,高质量发展的道路不会动摇。
In 2020, with the spread of COVID-19 all over the country, China’s economy is predicted to encounter periodic impact. In order to avoid the short-term shocks becoming long-term risks, the related monetary policy needs to be released in advance. As restricted by the epidemic situation, the positive finance presumably encounters the bottlenecks of scale, time lag, and effectiveness, which is different from the SARS period. Meanwhile, with the release of inflation constraints and term spread constraints, the space for LPR reduction is expected to further expand, which could be the support of monetary policy regulation. Therefore, we predict that in 2020, across-the-board RRR cuts and LPR reduction are expected to be released in advance, while the structural policy tools will focus on epidemic areas, services, and SMEs. In 2020, the long-term trend for Chinese economic development will not change.
作者
程实
钱智俊
CHENG Shi;QIAN Zhijun(ICBC International Holdings Limited,Hong Kong 999077,China)
出处
《中国科学院院刊》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期195-199,共5页
Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences
