摘要
本文以微博为自媒体代表,研究上市公司自媒体信息披露对分析师盈余预测偏差的影响,以及在不同市场行情下这一影响的差异性。研究发现:自媒体信息披露能够显著提高分析师盈余预测的准确性,降低预测偏差;在市场行情高涨时,自媒体信息披露对盈余预测准确性的提升作用更为显著;细分微博内容后发现,价值相关类信息显著提升了分析师盈余预测准确性,噪声类信息却与之相反;进一步将分析师盈余预测偏差划分为乐观与悲观两种,发现在牛市行情下,自媒体信息披露不仅显著降低了分析师乐观偏差,也有效修正了其悲观偏差,而熊市行情只降低了其悲观偏差。
Taking weibo as the representative of we-media, this paper studies the influence of information disclosure of we-media of listed companies on analysts’ earnings forecast deviation and the difference of this influence in different market conditions. Research findings are that we-media information disclosure can significantly improve the accuracy of analysts’ earnings prediction, reduce the prediction deviation, that when the market price is high, we-media information disclosure plays a more significant role in improving the accuracy of earnings prediction. After subdividing the contents of weibo, it is found that value-related information significantly improves the accuracy of earnings prediction of analysts, while noise information is the opposite. It further divides the analyst’s earnings forecast deviation into optimism and pessimism, and finds that in the bull market, the information disclosure of we-media not only significantly reduces the analyst’s optimism deviation, but also effectively corrects the analyst’s pessimism deviation, while the bear market only reduces the analyst’s pessimism deviation.
作者
黄宏斌
李然
毛天琴
HUANG Hongbin;LI Ran;MAO Tianqin(Accounting School,Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222,China;School of Economics and Management,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China)
出处
《西安交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第2期45-56,共12页
Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University：Social Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71872121)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(71402115)
天津财经大学优秀青年学者资助计划(YQ1507)
关键词
盈余预测
信息披露
自媒体
市场行情
投资者情绪
earnings forecast
information disclosure
we-media
market condition
investor sentiment
