摘要
改革开放40多年来,中国经济增长奇迹的背后却隐藏着一系列令人费解且着迷的非同寻常的现象,我们可以称之为"中国之谜"。是什么因素导致"中国之谜"中高储蓄和低劳动收入份额并存的典型失衡事实?我们从融资约束和企业储蓄这一视角重新对这一现象加以解读。本文所提出的观点为,中国经济转型过程中,信贷市场的不完善使得非国有企业更倾向于使用储蓄"挤占"劳动者报酬来进行内源性融资,这使得储蓄率不断上升、而劳动收入份额偏低且持续下降。本文的实证检验证实了这一理论逻辑。进而,我们构建了一个描述中国经济转型的理论模型,模型校准与定量预测表明,随着中国经济转型的加快与最终结束,中国的储蓄率将在达到顶峰后下降,而劳动收入份额则会触底回升。
The 40-year history of the economic Reform and opening up in China has witnessed a series of puzzling and fascinating phenomena behind the China miracle, which we can call China mystery. For one thing, the extraordinary cause of the increasingly higher corporate saving rate against the remarkable decline of labor income share makes a China mystery defiant of outsiders’ understanding. This paper, therefore, attempts to provide an explanation from the perspective of financial constraints and corporate savings. In the process of economic transition, non-state-owned firms have to finance internally through corporate savings due to the imperfection of the credit market, and the labor income share is consequently eroded, which contributes to the simultaneous rise of saving rate and the decline of labor income share. The theory proposed is then confirmed empirically by using micro-level data from industrial firms in China. The study goes on to construct a growth model to describe the economic transition in the country. A calibrated version of the theory accounting quantitatively for the situation indicates that, with the economic transition getting to its end, the high saving rate will eventually decline and the labor income share will recover after hitting its bottom.
作者
赵秋运
马晶
胡巧玉
Zhao Qiuyim;Ma Jing;Hu Qiaoyu(Institute of New Structur Economics Peking University LingnanColege Sun Yat—sen MemorialUniversity PICCInvestmentHoldingCo Ltd)
出处
《宏观质量研究》
CSSCI
2020年第2期75-94,共20页
Journal of Macro-quality Research
基金
国家社科基金一般项目（18BJL120）
中国博士后基金（2018M630001）资助
关键词
企业储蓄
融资约束
劳动收入份额
经济转型
Financial Constraints
Corporate Saving
Labor Income Share
Economic Transition
