摘要
以全国286个地级及以上城市为研究单元,基于城市人均GDP数据,采用变异系数、空间自相关模型和空间马尔科夫模型分析了2001-2016年中国城市经济区域差异的演变特征,并采用空间回归模型探讨了相关影响因素。结果表明:全国及四大区域的城市经济的空间差异逐渐缩小,变异系数呈现东部地区<中部地区<全国<西部地区<东北地区的局面;城市经济发展存在显著的空间集聚特征,经济发展高值区(HH类型)主要集聚在东部沿海和东北地区的城市群,如珠三角城市群、长三角城市群、山东半岛城市群、辽中南城市群、哈长城市群及长江中游城市群,经济发展低值区(LL类型)主要分布在中西部的山西、陕西、甘肃、四川和河南等省区,HL和LH类型数量较少且分布零散。空间马尔科夫模型结果显示,中国城市经济发展存在"俱乐部趋同"现象。在城市经济发展过程中,大部分倾向于维持原有的状态,少部分城市会向相邻的经济类型转变,实现跨越式发展,即跨越相邻经济类型、向更高或者更低的经济类型转变的城市数量较少。城市的邻域环境对城市经济发展影响较大,一个城市若与经济发达的城市为邻,其经济发展水平提升的概率将增大;反之,发展会受到抑制。空间回归模型结果表明,城市经济结构、固定资产投资额、从事科学研究和技术服务的劳动力数量,以及科技支出占财政支出比重均显著影响城市经济发展,同时城市间的空间溢出效应在模型中也得以验证。建议重视区域发展的空间"溢出效应",强化核心城市和城市群的集聚和扩散机制,促进我国区域经济协调有序和高质量发展。
Regional economic inequality has gained a lot of attention from academic and governmental perspectives.To illustrate the regional economic variation in China,this paper collected per capita GDP of 286 cities from 2001 to 2016 and applied spatial statistical methods as coefficient variance,spatial autocorrelation model and spatial Markov model to analyze the evolution characteristics of urban economic development pattern.Furthermore,relevant factors that have significant impacts on this spatial pattern were analyzed by the spatial regression models.The conclusions are as follows.The spatial difference of urban economy in the whole country and four regions is gradually narrowing.The variation coefficient shows the situation of the eastern region<the central region<the whole country<the western region<the northeast region.Urban economic development has shown significant spatial correlation effect and remarkable agglomeration characteristics.The areas with high developmental level are mainly concentrated in the urban agglomerations in the coastal regions of China and northeast China,such as the Pearl River Delta,the Yangtze Delta,Shandong peninsula,mid-southern Liaoning,Harbin-Changchun megalopolis and urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river;Cities with relatively low economic development level are mainly distributed in Shanxi,Shaanxi,Gansu,Sichuan and Henan provinces.The results from spatial Markov model show that club convergence exists in urban economic development in China.In the process of urban economic development,most cities tend to maintain the original state,and a small number of cities will change to neighboring economic types,and the number of cities that have made the leap,crossing adjacent economic types to higher or lower economic types,is small.Neighborhood environment has a great influence on the economic development of a specific city.If a city is adjacent to the economically developed city,the probability of its economic upward development will increase;otherwise upward deve
作者
闫涛
张晓平
陈浩
李润奎
YAN Tao;ZHANG Xiaoping;CHEN Hao;LI Runkui(College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《经济地理》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第12期11-20,共10页
Economic Geography
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(41771133)
中科院战略先导专项A类项目(XDA19040403)
关键词
区域经济
城市经济
城市群
空间马尔科夫模型
俱乐部趋同
高质量发展
区域协调发展战略
regional economic
urban economic
urban agglomeration
spatial Markov model
club convergence
coordinated regional development strategy
high-quality development
