摘要
该文基于公平与效率协调视角,在考虑了公平和效率原则在中国碳减排潜力中的重要性基础上,重新估算了1997-2016年中国大陆29个省(直辖市、自治区,简称省份)的碳减排潜力;进而采用Dagum基尼系数分解和Kernel密度估计方法,对其碳减排潜力的地区差异及其分布动态演进进行了实证研究;最后基于Durbin空间计量模型,在考虑空间关联性的基础上,进一步考察了碳减排潜力的影响因素。研究发现:(1)29省份碳减排潜力空间分布的总体差异在样本考察期内呈现上升趋势,地区间差异贡献率长期比地区内差异贡献率高,且于2010年后地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源;(2)29省份碳减排潜力地区多级分化情况呈减缓的态势,而空间相关性在考察期内呈现从不显著到显著再到不显著的现象;(3)煤炭占比对29省份的碳减排潜力水平造成的正向影响最大,而第三产业占比对碳减排潜力水平造成负向影响最大。
Based on the carbon emission reduction potential estimated from the perspective of equity and efficiency coordination,this paper takes 29 provinces in China's Mainland as the object of study in 1997-2016.The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition and the Kernel density estimation method are used to make an empirical study on the regional gap and its distribution dynamic evolution of 29 provinces'carbon emission reduction potential.Based on the Moran index and Durbin econometric model,the factors affecting carbon emission potential are further investigated on the basis of spatial correlation.It is found that the spatial distribution of 29 provinces'carbon emission reduction potential shows an upward trend during the sample period.The contribution rate of inter-regional differences is higher than that of intra-regional differences for a long time,and the main source of the overall difference is inter-regional differences after 2010.Kernel nuclear density estimates show that the multi-level differentiation of carbon emission potential areas in 29 provinces'is slowing down.The proportion of coal has the greatest positive impact on the potential level of carbon emission reduction in each province,while the proportion of tertiary industry has the greatest negative impact on the potential level of carbon emission reduction.
作者
周迪
李楚潼
于童
ZHOU Di;LI Chutong;YU Tong(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China;School of Economics and Trade,Guangdong University of Foreign Studies,Guangzhou 510006,China)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第10期217-228,共12页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
广东省自然科学基金博士启动项目（2018A030310044）
广东省软科学项目重点项目（2015A070703019）
广东省软科学项目（2016A070705058）
广东省高校优秀青年创新人才培养计划资助项目（2012LYM_0060）
