摘要
文章首先研究了中央财政的补贴金额与影响的粮食产量之间的关系;以及在国家安全保障的基础下,5年后我国可轮耕的土地。其次,采用灰色预测的算法,预测出2016年到2023年的粮食产量,通过轮耕的土地亩数与粮食总损失量的关系,得到专项补贴资金为206.67亿元;然后通过建立粮食产量与降水和温度的回归方程,再依据粮食总需求量等于正常耕种的粮食产量与轮耕的粮食产量之和,得到5年后可轮耕的土地面积为2.3573亿亩,其中轮作的土地为1.9644亿亩,休耕的土地为0.3929亿亩;最后得出在2023年中央财政需要安排的补贴资金为527.02亿元。
Firstly,the paper studies the relationship between the amount of subsidy from the central government and the grain output affected by the subsidy,and on the basis of national security,China's rotatable land in five years.Secondly,the gray prediction algorithm is used to predict the grain yield from 2016 to 2023,and the special subsidy fund is 20.667 billion yuan according to the relationship between the land acres of rotation tillage and the total grain loss.Then the regression equation between grain yield,precipitation and temperature is established,and the total grain demand is equal to the normal tillage.The sum of grain yield and grain yield of rotation tillage is 23573 million mu after five years,of which 1964 million mu is rotated land and 392.9 million mu is fallow land.Finally,the subsidies allocated by the central government in 2023 are 5.702 billion yuan.
作者
胡锦榛
毕静娜
罗生迪
吴宇航
HU Jin-zhen;BI Jing-na;LUO Sheng-di;WU Yu-hang(Mathematical Modeling Innovation Lab,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan hebei 063210;School of metallurgy and energy,North China University of science and technology,Tangshan hebie 063210;Hebei Key Laboratory of Data Science and Applications,Tangshan hebei 063210;Tangshan Key Laboratory of Data Science,Tangshan hebei 063210)
出处
《新一代信息技术》
2018年第1期14-20,共7页
New Generation of Information Technology
基金
国家自然基金资助项目(No.11601151)。
关键词
土地轮耕
灰色预测
线性回归
Land rotation
Grey prediction
Linear regression
