摘要
利用南丰国家农业气象观测一级站1981-2018年柑桔物候观测资料和平行观测气象资料进行统计分析,发现南丰县柑桔开花期随年际变化线性相关极显著,柑桔开花始期、普遍期、末期与年际变化线性相关系数分别-0.715、-0.641、-0.584,气候倾向率分别为-5.23 d/10a、-4.17 d/10a、-3.43 d/10a。南丰县柑桔开花期与1月31日后≥0℃累积积温线性相关极显著,1月31日至柑桔开花始期、普遍期、末期≥0℃累积积温历年平均值分别为930.2℃、993.4℃、1056.6℃,柑桔开花始期、普遍期、末期与1月31日后≥0℃累积积温线性相关系数分别为0.904、0.875、0.776。南丰县柑桔开花期与2-3月平均地面温度,2-3月平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温,2月下旬+3月中旬+3月下旬日照时数线性相关极显著,利用累积积温推算和回归分析2种方法可预报柑桔开花期。
The citrus phenological observation data and parallel observation meteorological data from 1981 to 2018 at Nanfeng national agrometeorological observatory were used for statistical analysis,It was found that the flowering period of citrus in Nanfeng county was linearly correlated with the interannual variation,the linear correlation coefficients between the beginning of flowering,the general flowering stage,the end of flowering and interannual were-0.715,-0.641,-0.584,respectively,the climatic tendency rates were-5.23 d/10a,-4.17 d/10a,-3.43 d/10a,respectively.Flowering period of citrus in Nanfeng county and the linear correlation of accumulated temperature after January 31 is very significant,From January 31 to the beginning of flowering,the general flowering stage and the end of flowering(>0℃)cumulative temperature of citrus were 930.2,993.4 and 1056.6,respectively.Initial flowering stage,universal flowering stage and terminal flowering stage of citrus and the linear correlation coefficients of accumulated temperature(>0℃)after January 31 were 0.904,0.875 and 0.776,respectively.Flowering Period of citrus in Nanfeng county and average surface temperature in February-March,average temperature in February-March,average maximum temperature and average minimum temperature,the linear correlation of sunshine hours in late February+mid March+late March is very significant.The cumulative accumulated temperature and regression analysis were used to predict the flowering period of citrus.
作者
何寿仁
金国花
HE Shouren;JIN Guohua(Nanfeng County Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province,344500,Nanfeng,Jiangxi,PRC;Jiangxi Agricultural Meteorological Center,330096,Nanchang,PRC)
出处
《江西科学》
2020年第1期82-86,共5页
Jiangxi Science
关键词
柑桔花期
变化特征
气候分析
相关系数
开花期预报
citrus florescence
change characteristics
climate analysis
correlation coefficient
prediction of flowering period
