摘要
近年来地方政府债务问题成为各方关注的焦点。本文手工整理并建立了我国30个省份2005-2017年13年的地方债务数据库,基于居民收入分配这一新视度,通过面板协整回归模型系统分析了地方政府债务的收入分配效应。实证研究发现:地方政府债务与城乡收入分配差距呈现U型关系,当地方政府债务水平低于某一阈值时,地方政府举债有利于缩小收入分配差距,超过该阈值则会扩大收入分配差距;该阈值水平在36%左右。依据理论分析和实证研究结果,我们提出了地方政府合理负债、城乡统筹使用、实行债务规模上限管理等具体建议。
In recent years,local government debt has been the focus of attention.This paper manually sorts out and establishes the local debt database of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2017.Based on the new vision of residents income distribution,this paper systematically analyzes the income distribution effect of local government debt through panel cointegration regression model.The empirical study finds a U-shaped relationship between local government debt and urban-rural income distribution gap.When the level of local government debt is below a certain threshold,the issuing of local government debt is conducive to narrowing the income distribution gap,beyond this threshold it will widen the income distribution gap,and this critical level is about 36%.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical research results,we put forward some specific suggestions,such as the reasonable issuance of local government debt,the use of urban and rural pooling,and the implementation of debt scale upper management,which has important guiding value for the current disposal of local debt problems.
作者
李红权
尹盼盼
LI Hongquan;YIN Panpan(School of Business,Hunan Normal University,Changsha,410081,China)
出处
《金融评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期86-97,123,共13页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71871092)《系统性金融风险的形成机制与监测预警研究:基于内生性和过程观的视角》的支持
