摘要
中国东部、中部和西部地区因生态环境、经济发展、资源状况等存在着差异性,影响天然气需求的因素也有所不同。为了充分认识上述差异性,利用灰色关联度模型从GDP、产业结构、环保机制、城镇化率、人口密度、能源消耗强度、能源消费结构等7个影响因素中,筛选出对上述各区天然气需求影响较大的3个核心因素,分析其与天然气消费量之间的内在联系,进而建立分数阶GM(1,N)模型,对各区域的天然气需求量进行预测。研究结果表明:(1)对东部地区天然气需求影响最大的3个因素依次为能源消费结构、GDP和城镇化率,中部地区依次为GDP、能源消费结构和城镇化率,西部地区则依次为城镇化率、产业结构和人口密度;(2)东部地区在规划天然气消费政策方面要着重加强对能源消费结构的调整,中部地区要着重调控经济发展与能源消费之间的关系,西部地区则应加快城镇化建设,以此带动天然气消费量的增长;(3)基于3个核心因素建立的分数阶GM(1,3)模型能够很好地拟合历史需求量数据,具有良好的预测性能;(4)预测2020—2025年中国东中西部地区天然气需求量均呈稳步上升趋势,但受能源改革及外部经济环境的影响,增速均会有所下滑,并在2025年分别达约2440×10~8 m^3、640×10~8 m^3和1000×10~8 m^3,届时全国的天然气需求量将达4080×10~8 m^3。
Due to the various ecological environment, economic development and resources, the main in fluencing factors of natural gas con- sumption are di fferent in the eastern, central and western areas of China. To fully understand such discrepancy, we adopted the Grey Relation model to select three main signi ficant factors from 7 potential impacts including gross domestic product (GDP), industry structure, environ- mental protection mechanism, urbanization rate, population density, energy consumption intensity and energy consumption structure. Then, we analyzed the internal relevance between the selected three factors and the regional natural gas consumption. Furthermore, we established the grey model GM(1, N) with fractional order accumulation to predict the future demand of natural gas consumption in the eastern, central and western areas of China based on the selected three factors. The following results were achieved. (1) Energy consumption structure, GDP, and urbanization rate are three main in fluencing factors of natural gas consumption in the eastern and central areas, while in the western area, the three main factors are urbanization rate, industry structure and population density. (2) In terms of planning natural gas consumption pol- icies, adjustment of energy consumption structure should be strengthened in the eastern area, relationship between economic development and energy consumption should be focused on in the central area, urbanization should be speeded up in the western area. (3) The GM(1,3) model based on three main factors, well fitting historic demand data, will have a good prediction performance. (4) Natural gas demand in the eastern, central and western areas will achieve a sustainable growth in 2020 2025. However, such growth rate may decrease due to energy reform and external economic environment. By 2025, natural gas demand in these three areas will be about 244 bcm (billion cubic meters), 64 bcm and 100 bcm respectively, with a total value of 408 bcm for the whole China.
作者
王建良
李孥
WANG Jianliang;LI Nu(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China;Research Center for China's Oil and Gas Industry Development,Beijing 102249,China)
出处
《天然气工业》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第2期149-158,共10页
Natural Gas Industry
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“中国非常规天然气开发对水资源的影响机理、作用程度与管理应对研究”（编号：71874201）
国家自然科学基金青年项目“页岩气开发环境影响量化评估与管理政策研究”（编号：71503264）
关键词
中国
天然气
需求
影响因素
需求量预测
灰色关联分析
分数阶灰色模型
政策
China
Natural gas
Demand
Influencing factors
Forecast
Grey Relation model
Grey model with Fractional Order Accumu lation
Policy
