摘要
目前精确地预测我国农村月用电量的特征和变化对农村风光互补发电系统容量的合理配置具有重要的意义。基于扬州地区历史用电量数据,采用传统的GM(1,1)模型对数据进行分析,发现传统的GM(1,1)模型不能满足精度的要求。所以提出了在多次累加的基础上对传统的GM(1,1)模型进行改进,对2016-2017年农村月用量进行预测。预测结果表明改进的GM(1,1)模型可以用来精确的预测扬州未来农村地区各月份的用电量,以便于农村风光互补发电系统的广泛应用。
At present,it is of great significance to accurately predict the characteristics and changes of rural monthly electricity consumption for the rational allocation of rural scenery complementary power generation system capacity.Based on the historical electricity consumption data of Yangzhou area,the traditional GM(1,1)model is used to analyze the data,and it is found that the traditional GM(1,1)model can not meet the requirements of accuracy.Therefore,on the basis of many accumulations,the traditional GM(1,1)model is improved to predict the monthly consumption of rural areas from 2016 to 2017.The prediction results show that the improved GM(1,1)model can be used to accurately predict the future months of Yangzhou rural areas.Electricity consumption,in order to facilitate the rural scenery complementary power generation system widely used.
作者
王晓燕
张建华
翁訸
王健
Wang Xiaoyan;Zhang Jianhua;Weng He;Wang Jian(School of Water Conservancy and Energy Dynamics,Yangzhou University JiangsuYangzhou 225000;Nanjing Panda Electronics Co.,Ltd.Special Power supply Research and Development Department JiangsuNanjing 210096)
出处
《科技风》
2020年第2期174-176,共3页
基金
住房和城乡建设部(并网型风光互补供电系统在新农村建设中的应用研究)
关键词
农村月用电量
风光互补发电系统
灰色模型
多次累加
改进的GM(1
1)
Rural monthly electricity consumption
scenery complementary power generation system
grey model
multiple accumulation
improved GM(1,1)
