摘要
本研究利用黑龙港流域典型县域(南皮县)1967-2015年逐日气温、降水、日照等气象资料,应用有序聚类分析与气候倾向率数理统计方法,分析农业气候资源变化特征,旨为探寻农业气候资源变迁规律及区域农业可持续发展提供研究依据。分析表明,南皮县年均气温有升高趋势,每10年平均升高0.263℃,以冬季增温最为显著,每10年平均升高0.531℃;稳定通过0℃与10℃的活动积温呈上升趋势,每10年分别平均增加62.82℃和49.75℃。年均降雨量有减少趋势,不同季节增减不同,春季降雨量略有增加,其他季节不同程度减少。结合当地粮食生产布局,冬季积温增加对小麦种植和生长有一定影响,夏秋季降雨减少增加了玉米产量不稳定性。
In order to explore the historical change law of climate resources in Nanpi county and provide scientific basis for agricultural production, data of daily temperature, precipitation and sunshine in Nanpi county from 1967 to 2015 were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average temperature of Nanpi increased by 0.263 ℃ per 10 years, with the most significant increase of 0.531℃ per 10 a in winter. The active accumulated temperature through 0 ℃ and 10℃ presents significant upward trend, increasing by62.82 ℃ and 49.75 ℃ for every 10 years on average, respectively. The annual precipitation showed a decreasing trend, specifically,the precipitation increased in spring and decreased in summer, autumn and winter. Sunshine hours decreased significantly. The abrupt changes in temperature occurred in 1982 and 1998. The average temperature increased by 0.615 ℃ after the abrupt change. Precipitation abrupt change is not obvious. The sudden change in sunshine hours occurred in 1985, and sunshine time reduced an average of89.93 h after the mutation. Increase of winter accumulated temperature had a certain effect on wheat planting and growth, and decrease of summer and autumn precipitation increased the uncertainty of corn production.
作者
李晓爽
曹彩云
郑春莲
李海山
党红凯
LI Xiaoshuang;CAO Caiyun;ZHENG Chunlian;LI Haishan;DANG Hongkai(Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang,Henan 453000,China;Dryland Farming Institute,Hebei Acadamy of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences,Hengshui,Hebei 053000,China)
出处
《天津农业科学》
CAS
2020年第1期86-90,共5页
Tianjin Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划（2017YFD03009002）
河北省重点研发计划项目（18397005D）
河北省气象重点实验室开放基金（Z201601H）
河北省小麦产业体系
河北省农科院创新工程项目
关键词
黑龙港流域
气温
降水
日照
农业
Heilonggang Basin
temperature
precipitation
sunshine duration
agriculture
