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基于大气模型误差特性的“天宫一号”再入预报

Re-entry Prediction for TG-1 Based on Error Characteristics of Atmospheric Model
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摘要 空间环境扰动是影响再入预报精度的重要因素。利用相同空间环境情况下大气模型误差具有较大相关性的特点,提出使用时分参数的策略进行再入预报。首先基于两行根数计算弹道系数,并根据弹道系数序列判别“天宫一号”(TG-1)目标飞行器的姿态;分析TG-1持续翻滚后弹道系数随地磁指数的变化特性,确定弹道系数-空间环境对应表;再入预报过程中根据积分时刻空间环境情况选择对应的弹道系数,以降低大气模型误差的影响。在TG-1再入案例中,文章中的方法最大预报误差仅为8%,远小于传统方法预报误差,可以有效提高空间环境扰动时的再入预报精度。 Aiming at the problem that the re-entry prediction result is strongly effected by the space environment,the re-entry predictions are performed based on the characteristic that the atmospheric model errors are correlated with the environment.Firstly the ballistic coefficient of TG-1 is calculated using TLEs as data source,and then the attitude is estimated based on the ballistic coefficient results.Then the characteristic of the ballistic coefficient changes with the geomagnetic level is analyzed.Finally re-entry predictions are performed employing the strategy of time-division parameter.In the case of TG-1,the maximum relative re-entry prediction error is about 8.3%,which is much smaller than the relative error calculated by the classical method.The result shows that the proposed method can effectively improve the accuracy of re-entry prediction when the space environment is disturbed.
作者 张炜 王秀红 崔文 游经纬 ZHANG Wei;WANG Xiuhong;CUI Wen;YOU Jingwei(Xi′an Satellite Control Center,Xi′an 710600,China)
出处 《航天返回与遥感》 CSCD 2019年第6期11-18,共8页 Spacecraft Recovery & Remote Sensing
关键词 弹道系数 大气模型误差 地磁指数 再入预报 “天宫一号”目标飞行器 ballistic coefficient atmospheric model error geomagnetic index re-entry prediction TG-1target spacecraft
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