摘要
自2016年以来,中国政府实施了新一轮的大规模减税降费政策。然而,从宏观经济运行实践看,固定资产投资和居民消费增长非但没有回升,反而出现进一步地持续减速。这绝非政策效果的滞后性所能解释。事实上,减税降费虽然能够在供给端为企业降低成本,但在经济下行时期,成本因素对企业投资的激励作用减弱,企业的投资意愿更多取决于需求端的消费需求。当前,由于居民部门较高债务杠杆率对居民消费的约束作用,减税降费未能有效带动居民消费增长,国内消费需求市场疲软,严重削弱企业的投资意愿。下一阶段,减税降费应更加注重优化居民消费环境,缓解居民部门债务压力、提高居民收入增长水平入手,以促进消费增长来增强企业的投资信心和投资意愿。
Since 2016,the Chinese government has implemented a new round of policy of large-scale tax and fee cuts. However,from the subsequent macroeconomic practice,the growth of fixed asset investment and household consumption has not rebounded but continued to slow down further. This is by no means what could be explained by the lag of policy effects. In fact,although tax and fee cuts can reduce costs for enterprises on the supply side,however in the economic downturn,the effect of cost factors on investment is absolutely weakened,and the willingness of enterprises to invest mainly depends on consumer demand on the demand side. At present,due to the restrictive effect of the high household debt leverage ratio on household consumption,tax and fee cuts could not effectively promote the growth of household consumption,resulting in a weak domestic consumer demand market,which seriously weakens the willingness of enterprises to invest. In the next stage,more attention should be paid to the optimization of the consumer environment in implementing tax and fee cuts policy,and importance be attached to easing the debt pressure of the household sector and raising the income growth of residents,so as to promote consumption growth and enhance the investment confidence and willingness of enterprises.
出处
《东南学术》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期144-155,247,共13页
Southeast Academic Research
基金
教育部重点研究基地重大项目“深化财税体制改革与促进中国经济平稳增长”(项目编号:18JJD790007)
教育部重点研究基地重大项目“中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)的再拓展”(项目编号:17JJD790014)
福建省社会科学规划项目“新时代财政支出对居民消费增长作用的再研究”(项目编号:FJ2019B020)
