摘要
六西格玛技术的本质是基于数据和事实的管理,为解决实际问题提供了技术支撑。胡状集输的原油产量波动大,导致管线穿孔、油井不出油和偷盗原油等异常情况不能及时被发现。原油波动与六西格玛研究的大多数制造类问题有很大区别,属于弹性问题,可以通过控制总液、含水等因素来降低未识别缺陷。含水与产油存在一种特殊关系,与产油不再是公式中的对应关系,称为中介变量。对弹性问题和中介变量,不适宜用回归分析来衡量各因素的贡献率,采用拉平处理方式则更合理。拉平处理后,得到不同时刻产油、总液和含水的贡献率分别为32.8%、21.6%和18.9%。根据历史数据统计,参照原油波动标准差,制定胡状原油集输波动预警系统,根据参数变化判断原油波动的原因并及时采取合理措施。
The essence of Six Sigma technology is the management based on data and fact,which provides technical support for solving practical problems.Oil production in Huzhuang gathering and transporting area fluctuates greatly,which results in some abnormal conditions such as pipeline perforation,no oil of oil well and stealing of crude oil being found in time.The fluctuation of crude oil production is very different from most manufacturing problems studied by Six Sigma.It belongs to elastic problem.The recognition rate of the defects stated above can be reduced by controlling total liquid and water content.There is a special relationship between water cut and oil production,and oil production is no longer the corresponding relationship in the formula,which is called intermediary variable.Regression analysis is no longer suitable to measure the contribution rate of each factor in the elastic problem,but flattening method is more reasonable.After flattening treatment,the contribution rates of oil production,total liquid and water content at different time were 32.8%,21.6%and 18.9%,respectively.According to the statistics of historical data and referring to the standard deviation of crude oil fluctuation,an early warning system for the fluctuation of crude oil production in Huzhuang gathering and transportation area is established,and the causes of crude oil fluctuation can be judged according to the variation of the parameters of the system,and reasonable countermeasures are taken in time.
出处
《石油工业技术监督》
2019年第10期6-9,共4页
Technology Supervision in Petroleum Industry
关键词
六西格玛技术
弹性问题
原油集输
中介变量
拉平处理
six sigma technology
elastic problem
crude oil gathering and transportation
intermediate variable
flattening treatment
