摘要
长江江苏段危化品运输船舶日均流量达500艘次,年过境化学品运输量超过2亿吨,给沿江分布的集中式饮用水水源地带来巨大环境风险。本文将长江江苏段航道水域分成19段,结合统计的长江水路交通状况数据(AIS数据),利用统计学方法学和线性插值技术,对长江江苏段危化品船舶污染事故概率进行预测计算,以考察江段的安全环境风险承载力。针对长江江苏段危险品船舶的高风险,提出降低船舶安全事故概率的对策。
The average daily flow of dangerous chemicals ships in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River is 500 ships,and the annual transshipment of dangerous chemicals exceeds 200 million tons,which brings huge environmental risks to the centralized drinking water source areas along the Yangtze River. This paper divides the waterway of the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River into 19 sections,combines the statistical traffic data of the Yangtze River(AIS data),uses the statistical methodology and linear interpolation technology to predict the probability of pollution accidents caused by dangerous chemicals ships in the Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River,in order to investigate the risk carrying capacity of the safety environment of the section of the Yangtze River. Aim at the high risk of dangerous goods ships in Jiangsu section of the Yangtze River,the countermeasures to reduce the probability of ship safety accidents are put forward.
作者
王志霞
祝秋宏
丰岩
吴宣
陈荣昌
WANG Zhixia;ZHU Qiuhong;FENG Yan;WU Xuan;CHEN Rongchang(Waterborne Transportation Institute,Beijing 100088,China;Jiangsu Maritime Safety Administration,Nanjing Jiangsu 210000,China)
出处
《交通节能与环保》
2019年第6期32-35,共4页
Transport Energy Conservation & Environmental Protection
基金
江苏海事局科技项目“长江江苏段船载危化品安全监管与防污染研究”
关键词
长江
危化品船舶
安全风险
Yangtze River
chemicals ship
safety environmental risk
