摘要
基于普洱雨季开始期年际增量变化规律和影响雨季开始期的环流形势及物理过程,采用年际增量方法和多元线性回归分析方法,选取5个具有物理意义的预测因子(包括前期1月南半球绕极环流、前期2月南太平洋高压、前期4月孟加拉湾至南海海平面气压、前期冬季加拿大北部海冰和前期冬季伊朗高原积雪深度),建立了普洱雨季开始期的预测模型,并对预测模型进行1967-2017年的交叉检验和1998-2017年的逐年独立样本检验。交叉检验中,雨季开始期预测值和观测值年际增量的相关系数为0.84,相对均方根误差为24%;独立样本检验中,雨季开始期年际增量的相对均方根误差为15%,模型对雨季开始期异常年份的预测误差小于7 d,表明该预测模型能很好再现1967-2017年雨季开始期的变化趋势。
Pu'er city is located in the Southwest of Yunnan Province.The onset date of summer rainfall is very important for the crop and tea production in Pu'er.Based on the variation of interannual increment of onset date of Pu'er rainy season and the atmospheric circulation and physical process affecting the onset date of the rainy season,five key predictors with physical significance are selected by using the year-to-year increment approach.The five predictors are the circumpolar circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in January,the South Pacific high in February,the sea level pressure from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in April,the sea ice in northern Canada in the previous winter,and the snow depth in Iranian plateau in the previous winter.A prediction model of the onset date of the rainy season in Pu'er is established by using the multiple linear regression analysis method.The cross-validation tests for the period 1967-2017 and the independent hindcast for the period 1998-2017 are performed to validate the prediction model.In the cross-validation test,the correlation coefficient in interannual increment between predicted and observed onset date of the rainy season is 0.84,and the relative root mean square error is 24%.In the independent hindcast,the relative root mean square error of interannual increment of onset date of the rainy season is 15%,and the prediction error of onset date of the rainy season is less than 7 d,showing that the prediction model can well reproduce the change trend of onset date of the rainy season from 1967 to 2017.
作者
王秀英
田宝强
范可
WANG Xiuying;TIAN Baoqiang;FAN Ke(Pu'er Meteorological Bureau,Pu'er 665000,China;Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期801-813,共13页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY(QX)201506001)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41605053)
云南省普洱市气象局李崇银院士工作站(2018IC150)
贵州省科技厅项目[黔科合支撑2017(2593)]
关键词
年际增量方法
云南普洱雨季开始期
气候预测
year-to-year increment approach
onset of rainy season in Pu'er city of Yunnan Province
climatic prediction
